With less than two years to go to the next presidential election, France’s political forces are already jockeying for position. The balance of power between President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist government, a fragmented left and the increasingly emboldened far right continues to shift – shaping what could be one of the most consequential electoral cycles in decades.
Macron’s second and final term expires in 2027, and the search for his successor within the presidential camp remains unresolved.
His party, Renaissance, still dominates the governing alliance Ensemble, but enthusiasm has dwindled.
Macron’s approval ratings are low, hovering in the 20s. It reflects weariness with a presidency marked by pension reform protests, tensions over immigration and a reputation for technocratic detachment.
According to opinion pollster Gallup, based on its annual survey of public faith in institutions, trust in the French government dropped 13 percentage points to 29 percent in 2025, while confidence in the honesty of elections fell by the same margin to 51 percent. Trust in the judicial system and financial institutions was also down.
“No other European Union country has seen a bigger average drop in confidence across these four institutions in 2025 than France,” Gallup notes.
Moving towards a post-Macron era
As the 2027 vote looms, several figures within the centrist bloc are testing their national appeal – among them former prime minister Gabriel Attal, whose youth and communication skills contrast with Macron’s more aloof image.
Yet Attal faces the same structural weakness as his former mentor: the absence of a clearly defined ideological base. The centrist movement created by Macron for the 2017 presidential election was based largely around the leader himself rather than political doctrine.
Ensemble’s hold on parliament is fragile, forcing Macron’s team to rely on precarious alliances or the use of special constitutional powers to pass major legislation.
If 2025 was a year of constrained governance, 2026 looks set to test whether the Macron legacy can endure beyond the man himself. The president faces the delicate task of sustaining authority while preparing France – and his party – for a post-Macron era.
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Far right gathers its forces
Among those looking to replace the Macronistes, the faction mounting the most united opposition is the far right.
Marine Le Pen and the National Rally (RN) enter 2026 with more confidence than ever. After a strong showing in the 2024 European elections and the party’s continued dominance in rural and working-class regions, the RN’s path to the presidency no longer seems impassable.
In February, Le Pen will learn whether she can run in the 2027 presidential election. Convicted last March alongside eight other members of the RN of embezzling EU funds, she was sentenced to a five-year ban on holding office and a four-year prison term.
She is appealing the verdict, with a second trial scheduled from 13 January to 12 February.
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If the court upholds her conviction, it could radically reshape the next presidential race. Rather than its veteran leader, the RN’s “plan B” candidate would be Le Pen’s protégé Jordan Bardella.
Bardella, now party president, has helped “normalise” the RN’s image, appealing to younger voters and middle-income professionals frustrated with mainstream politics.
Their message combines economic nationalism with promises to restore social order – a contrast to the perceived elitism of Macron’s centrists.
Left divided
On the other end of the spectrum, the French left remains divided.
The left-wing alliance known as Nupes, which once united Socialists, Greens, Communists and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s hard-left France Unbowed (LFI), has largely unravelled. A new coalition formed for the 2024 parliamentary elections, compromising roughly the same members, met a similar fate, riven by divisions between centre-leftists and the far left.
Mélenchon’s confrontational style continues to polarise, leaving space for new figures to claim the middle ground – such as the more moderate Socialist leader Olivier Faure, or Green politicians seeking to reframe the debate around environmental justice.
While strong locally, the Greens face a struggle to broaden their appeal beyond urban and educated voters.
Climate policy remains a central concern, particularly amid new EU-level goals for energy transition, but in a country grappling with inflation and anxiety over purchasing power, those themes risk being overshadowed.
Traditional right struggles for relevance
For France’s traditional right, 2026 could prove a decisive year.
The conservative Les Républicains continue to struggle for relevance. Their local base remains sturdy, but nationally they lack both a clear leader and a message to distinguish them from the far right.
Some within the party, notably former French president Nicolas Sarkozy, are pushing for closer cooperation with Le Pen’s camp. In his newly published memoir, he declared an end to the cordon sanitaire that has traditionally kept mainstream parties from allying with the far right.
The Républicains’ leader Bruno Retailleau, a former interior minister who took a hard line on immigration and policing, has also wooed voters further to the right.
But others in the party insist on preserving a centrist, pro-European identity – such as former minister Xavier Bertrand, who is one of several other hopefuls challenging Retailleau for the 2027 nomination.
Locked in power struggles and squeezed between the RN and Macron’s centrists, the party risks marginalisation.
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Local elections preview presidential campaign
In March, municipal elections across France will be the final nationwide vote before the 2027 presidential contest. They are expected to serve as a dress rehearsal, testing alliances and strategies and setting the tone for the presidential campaign.
Immigration debates and questions of secularism are likely to again dominate political rhetoric, reflecting divisions that cut across the party spectrum.
Domestic security also looms large, especially after a string of shootings linked to drug trafficking in French cities.
As for foreign policy, France remains influential in Europe, especially amid the EU’s green and defence transitions. But wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, continued tension with Russia, and uncertainty about relations with the United States all weigh heavily on Paris’s diplomatic agenda.
Macron’s call for greater European “strategic autonomy” still resonates, though critics say his vision lacks practical backing.
(with newswires)
