French trade unions are staging yet another nationwide strike Wednesday to protest proposed changes to the French pension system. The government of Elisabeth Borne faces a difficult task in parliament as she attempts to ensure sufficient right-wing support for the reform bill before Thursday's decisive vote.
Two things are certain. There will be another nationwide stike on Wednesday. And there will be a parliamentary vote on the contested legislation on Thursday.
The rest is speculation.
Rubbish collection across much of the French capital is at a standstill after a week of strike action by dustbin collectors. The trade unions are hoping that schools, public transport and fuel distribution will be further disrupted by Wednesday's eighth day of protest.
Rolling strikes have continued in the transport and oil refinery sectors, with limited impact on other economic actors.
Forty percent of high-speed intercity trains have been cancelled on Wednesday, along with 30 percent of regular regional trains. Paris public transport will continue to be "troubled" according to the operator.
Only 368,000 demonstrators turned out for Saturday's protest, compared to a record-breaking 1.28 million the previous week. The government will be encourage by this sign that the anti-reform movement is running out of steam.
More difficult to guage is the amount of support the government will finally obtain from the right-wing Les Républicans.
The party is broadly supportive of the reform plans, but many individual members will be unwilling to take the political risk involved in voting in favour of legislation which is unpopular with two-thirds of French electors.
Article 49.3?
The government does, of course, have the possibility of forcing the legislation through without a vote in the National Assembly, under the terms of article 49.3 of the French constitution.
Most commentators agree that being forced to use the constitutional sidestep, especially given the level of public anger already provoked by the dispute, would represent an effective defeat for Borne.
The measures which President Emmanuel Macron hoped to see "democratically validated" will, in the case of 49.3, seem to have been imposed against the will of the people, and against the will of parliament.
General election?
One other element is the possibility of a dissolution of parliament.
Various opposition figures have voiced their determination to bring the government down if the legislation is passed by force.
The threat has already been brandished, without success.
President Emmanuel Macron could, himself, dissolve parliament to mark his dissatisfaction with the handling of the debate. But, says one opposition figure, the ruling party would be decimated in a general election, and the president won't take that risk.
Earlier this week, Macron was being upbeat.
"We have a solid majority," he told his centrist party managers. "And we have to make the political opposition face their responsibilities."
