With a week to go before the first round, France's local elections on 15 and 22 March are shaping up as a key test for political parties ahead of next year's presidential poll.
Campaigning is officially underway for France’s municipal elections, which decide who heads local councils in some 35,000 communes across the country.
While turnout is typically some 10 percentage points lower than for presidential elections, they serve as a strong indicator of support for France’s political parties – which are eyeing a pivotal ballot for France’s new president in 2027.
The votes are a key test of strength for the far-right National Rally (RN), which performed poorly in the last municipal votes in 2020 but went on to do well in European and parliamentary elections in 2024.
Looking to expand into larger urban areas in particular, the RN is fielding a record 650 lists. The party and its allies currently control only around a dozen councils, only one of which – Perpignan – represents more than 100,000 inhabitants.
"We know that the RN will win towns, probably a significant number. But it is very difficult to know exactly how many," researcher Gilles Ivaldi, who specialises in the far right, told French news channel TF1.
Early surveys suggest the RN could make gains in southern towns such as Toulon and Menton, where security issues like drug violence play to their advantage. The party is even hoping to take France's second-biggest city, Marseille, from the left.
Another key question is whether the RN can strike alliances with more moderate parties, who have traditionally joined forces to stop the far right getting into power. "If it wants to win in 2027, it needs the right-wing electorate," said Ivaldi.
"Parties' apparatus may still hold out at the national level, but it knows very well that it can forge alliances locally. In all European countries where the far right has come to power, this is how it has done it."
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Change of hands in Paris
The race is also drawing in national political heavyweights. Several current or former government ministers are running, including former culture minister Rachida Dati, and around 100 members of the French or European parliaments.
Dati, the right-wing Republicans (LR) candidate backed by some centrists after resigning to focus on running for mayor of Paris, is competing against Emmanuel Grégoire, representing the Socialists, Greens and Communists.
Most first-round polls put the two in a tight race to replace outgoing Mayor Anne Hidalgo, a member of the Socialists who has been in office since 2014. The Socialist Party (PS) has run the capital since 2001.
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Far-left hopes
On the far left of the political spectrum, France Unbowed (LFI) – like the RN – is aiming to improve on weak 2020 results.
It is targeting towns including Roubaix, where its leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon did well in the last presidential vote, and the northern Paris suburbs of Seine-Saint-Denis, where it has several MPs.
Mélenchon is a divisive figure on the broader left and the PS has refused to formally ally with LFI in these elections. At local level, however, the Socialists have not ruled out teaming up with LFI on a case-by-case basis, and candidates for the two parties are on joint lists in several dozen communes.
LFI's support could even prove crucial if the PS is to keep its grip on Paris. Its candidate, Sophia Chikirou, is polling at around 10 percent in the capital compared to 27 percent for Dati and 35 percent for Grégoire.
Macron in the background
For President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party, the municipal elections will serve as yet another referendum.
The party and its allies control relatively few councils and are fielding a reduced number of lists, limiting the potential for voters to take out their frustrations with the government at local level.
Just seven lists across the country are headed by Renaissance. In comparison, in 2020 the party – then named The Republic on the Move – put forward nearly 250 lists.
Instead, the party is betting on early alliances, principally with the right, to maintain its local influence.
In a change to the electoral law being rolled out for the first time, lists must be made up of equal numbers of men and women even in communes with fewer than 1,000 residents. Previously the requirement applied only to bigger towns. Yet only 25 percent of lists are headed by women, a slight increase from 2020.
New rules in France's three biggest cities – Paris, Marseille and Lyon – will also allow voters to elect the city council directly, rather than choosing representatives from their own arrondissement who go on to form a central panel.
