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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Jon Henley Europe correspondent

France presidential election 2022: Macron to face Le Pen in second round – as it happened

Emmanuel Macron Marine Le Pen France
People walking past campaign posters of Emmanuel Macron and Marine le Pen in Paris.
People walking past campaign posters of Emmanuel Macron and Marine le Pen in Paris. Photograph: Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters

Closing summary

We’re going to wrap this live blog up now. Thanks for staying with us, and here is a summary of this evening’s events:

  • Emmanuel Macron, the outgoing president, and Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally have finished top of the first round of voting in France’s presidential elections and will now face each other in the second round decider on 24 April.
  • Macron scored better than most analysts and polls had predicted, winning 28% of the vote, but Le Pen’s score of more than 23% will give her supporters plenty of hope for the coming fortnight.
  • The far-left firebrand Jean-Luch Mélenchon came third on about 21% of the vote, confirming his status as the leader of what is left of France’s left. The far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour was fourth with about 7%.
  • The vote confirmed the radical realignment of French politics that began with the centrist Macron’s victory in 2017, with the candidates of both France’s traditional parties of government, the right wing Les Républicains of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy and the Socialist party of François Mitterand and François Hollande, scoring 5% and 2% respectively.
  • All the defeated candidates called on their voters to cast their ballots for Macron in the second round, with the exception of Mélenchon, who asked his voters “not to give a single vote to Mme Le Pen” but stopped short of endorsing the outgoing president, and Zemmour, who called on his supporters to back the far-right candidate.
  • An early poll of second round voting intentions put support for Macron at 54% and Le Pen at 46%.
  • My colleague Angelique Chrisafis’s full report is here
  • And here is Angeliques’s detailed analysis of where Le Pen’s electoral strategy might go from here:

Updated

Early second round poll puts Macron ahead

A snap Ipsos poll of second round voting intentions carried out after polls stations closed on Sunday suggested Emmanuel Macron would win 54% of the popular vote on 24 April and Marine Le Pen 46%. About 12% of respondents said they were still undecided.

The poll suggested Macron would win the support of a majority of Green and centre-right voters, while Le Pen would win the backing of 85% of Eric Zemmour’s electorate. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters were divided more or less evenly between supporting Macron (34%), Le Pen (30%), and abstaining.

Macron: "We have not won yet"

Emmanuel Macron is speaking now. He thanks his cheering supporters.

You can count on me to deliver this project of progress, of openness and of independence - French and European - that I have defended.

He names and salutes all the candidates, and asks his supporters to applaud them, saying mutual respect is essential. He thanks particularly those who have endorsed his candidacy.

He says some - referencing Jean-Luc Mélenchon - have called on their voters to vote for him to block the far right, and acknowledges that that is not the same as supporting his programme. He says he wants to build a common platform, uniting all parts of the political spectrum.

The debate we will have over the next 15 days is decisive for our country and for Europe ... The only credible project against the high cost of living is ours. The only project for workers, for all those who are on the verge of unemployment, is ours. The only project of France and Europe, is ours.

I believe in us, in all of us, whatever our origins, whatever our opinions and our beliefs. So during the next fortnight, let’s spare no effort because we have not won yet. Let’s be humble, let’s be determined. Let’s convince everyone.

Here is my colleague Angelique Chrisafis’s news story on the first round results:

The centrist Emmanuel Macron will face the far-right Marine Le Pen in the final round of the French presidential election, after topping Sunday’s first round with 28% to her 23%, according to initial projected results.

France now faces a brutal two-week battle over the country’s future, as Macron once again styles himself as a pro-European “progressive” trying to face down what he calls Le Pen’s “racist”, anti-Muslim, nationalist programme and her “complacency” with the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, amid the war in Ukraine.

Macron scored higher than his result in the first round five years ago, and clearly gained support in the final hours of the campaign after his warnings to voters to hold back the far-right and protect France’s place on the international diplomatic stage as fighting continues in Ukraine.

But Le Pen’s score was also higher than five years ago. She had steadily gained support after campaigning hard on the cost of living crisis and the inflation that is hitting households and has become voters’ biggest concern.

The hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon came in third place with a higher than forecast 20% of the vote, cementing his leading position on the left after campaigning on the cost of living and transforming the presidential system.

The far-right TV pundit Eric Zemmour, who had convictions for incitement to racial hatred, and had run as an outsider on anti-immigration platform came fourth with 7% of the vote – lower than he had hoped.

But the biggest shock of the night was the very low score of Valérie Pécresse, the candidate for Nicolas Sarkozy’s traditional right Les Républicains. She took only 5% of the vote – a poor showing which is likely to lead to the implosion of her party in favour of its hardliners. This could leave France in a unique position in Europe without a traditional mainstream right.

The decline of the traditional parties of government was confirmed by the Socialist party’s candidate and mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, scoring only 2%. The Greens’ Yannick Jadot scored 4.4% despite the environment being among French voters’ top concerns.

You can read the rest of Angelique’s story here:

The second round campaign starts tomorrow, and much will depend on how the 47% or so of voters who did not cast their ballots for either Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen in the first round decide to vote on 24 April.

At present only Eric Zemmour, who scored 7%, has called on his supporters to back Le Pen. All other candidates but one, from centre-right to Socialist to Green, have clearly called on their voters to vote for Emmanuel Macron – but they all scored less than 7%.

The one who did not was far-left France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who stopped short of endorsing Macron but at least demanded that no votes be cast for Le Pen. Mélenchon scored more than 20%. How many of his voters decide to abstain rather than vote for Macron will be crucial.

Updated

Eric Zemmour, the extreme right anti-immigration TV pundit who finished fourth on 7%, is speaking now.

He says he is not a politician, he may have made mistakes, but still:

I take each of your votes as the cry of a people that doesn’t want to die. The fact that two million of you voted for me shows my message matters. Your voice can no longer be ignored. Everyone can see our ideas are worth far more than my score today. Keep the faith. Your vote is a vote for the future, because the truths we have spoken in this campaign will become obvious to all.

He says he has many disagreements with Marine Le Pen, but she is opposed in the second round by a man “who has never mentioned questions of identity or fatherland”. He asks his supporters to back Le Pen:

I call on my voters to cast their ballots for Marine Le Pen. I know some of you will not want to. But there is something greater than all of us, and that is France.”

Updated

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left candidate, is speaking now. He tells his supporters:

A new page of the fight is turned ... we should be proud of the work we have done. We have assembled a popular front.

He asks his supporters not to vote for Marine Le Pen:

We know who we will never vote for. Don’t give your votes for Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote for Madame Le Pen. I think this message is now heard.

That’s not quite the same, of course, as calling on his voters to cast their ballots for Emmanuel Macron. But Macron will take it.

Updated

Marine Le Pen is addressing her cheering supporters. She says the battle for the second round will be “civilisational”.

The people of France

have expressed themselves and done me the honour of qualifying me for the second round against the outgoing president ... I wish to express my profound gratitude.

She says the country faces a choice between “two opposing visions of the future”, and that she represents:

the incarnation of social justice around the centuries-old idea of the nation and of the people. Everyone who didn’t vote for Emmanuel Macron has a calling to join this movement.

Updated

Both Valérie Pécresse, the rightwing candidate, and Yannick Jadot, the Green party candidates, have clearly asked their supporters to vote for Emmanule Macron in the second round, saying it is essential to block the progress of the far right.

Anne Hidalgo, the Socialist party candidate, has also called on her voters to back Macron. Far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s decision to endorse Macron or not is likely to be very important - polls suggest many of his supporters could be tempted to vote for Le Pen.

Updated

Some different takes on these first round results:

Veteran France correpsondent John Lichfield:

A warning from the political scientist and leading populism expert Cas Mudde:

That’s a significantly bigger margin of victory for the outgoing president than most analysts had predicted, but remains a very strong performance by Le Pen that will give her supporters plenty of hope for what promises to be a bruising second round.

Mélenchon, head of the hard-left La France Insoumise, emerges as the uncontested leader of what remains of France’s left with 20% of the vote. Eric Zemmour came fourth on about 7.2% - and many of his supporters are likely to lend their votes to Le Pen in the second round.

A disastrous night, though, for the mainstream right: the rightwing Les Républicains’ candidate, Valérie Pécresse, scored around 5% to finish fifth. And an even worse on for the Socialist party, whose candidate, Paris mayor Anne Hidaldo, scored around 2%, according to the projections.

Updated

Macron will face Le Pen in second round, according to projections

Emmanuel Macron will face Marine Le Pen in the second round of France’s presidential elections, projections show.

According to usually accurate estimates based on votes cast in a representative sample of polling stations nationwide, it looks like the outgoing president defeated the leader of the far-right Rassemblement National, scoring around 28.6%-28.1% of the vote against her 24.4-23.3%.

The far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon finished third on 20%, according to the projections.

Updated

Exit polls are illegal in France, but that doesn’t stop Belgian and Swiss media from doing their own and sharing them on social media. There is no certaity about which agencies carried them out, however, and even less about their methodology - and they have often proved inaccurate in the past.

We’ll be sticking with the official estimates based on actual votes cast in a representative sample of polling stating nationwide, due at 8pm local time.

Plenty of Macron merch on offer for those at the outgoing president’s post-vote pep talk:

Abstention rate up, but not at record levels

The abstention rate, likely to prove crucial in this election, is likely to be between 25% and 26.5 %, according to French pollsters – higher than in the previous 2017 first round (22.2%), but not at 2002’s record level of 28.4 %.

Ifop put the abstention rate at 25 %, Harris Interactive at 25.6%, and Ipsos, Elabe and OpinionWay at 26.5%.

Turnout in the southwest, where voters are more likely to favour Emmanuel Macron, is reportedly higher than in the northeast, one of the regions most likely to support Marine Le Pen – but the abstenton rate in largely pro-Macron Paris is also quite high, according to French media.

Updated

The two favourites to reach the second round are already preparing their election night parties. Here’s the scene at Marine Le Pen’s campaign HQ:

And here are some of the more than 700 journalists from 37 countries who are accredited for Emmanuel Macron’s post-vote bash:

My colleague Kim Willsher spent the last couple of days on the trail with Marine Le Pen during the closing moments of her first round campaign, speaking to voters and reflecting on how the far-right leader has changed the image the public has of both her and her party:

Marine Le Pen took over what was then the Front National in 2011 and set about laundering its image, tarnished by xenophobic neo-Nazi thugs with shaven heads and jackboots. Members were expelled for racist and antisemitic remarks or for defending Philippe Pétain, head of France’s Nazi-collaborating Vichy government in the 1940s. She even threw out her own father in 2015.

After her 2017 defeat against Emmanuel Macron, Kim says:

She renamed the party the National Rally. It has stopped calling for the death penalty and for France to leave the EU. She continues to champion nationalistic “French first” discrimination, but there is also a commitment to more left-leaning economics, including increases in pensions, opposition to the privatisation of public services, and protectionism as an alternative to globalisation. She does not propose zero immigration, and has abandoned the party’s opposition to marriage equality and abortion.

Her critics say she has changed her style and not the party’s toxic substance - but as the left-leaning Jean-Jaurès Foundation noted, her personal detoxification process appears to have been successful:

The arguments around her incompetence or lack of knowledge no longer seem to hold water at a time when parts of France consider her to be completely presidential and close to the people, and no more worrying than other candidates.

As Kim concluded:

For many French people, the Le Pen name is no longer viewed with disdain. If, as expected, Le Pen does enough to reach the second round on 24 April, Macron will face the biggest political fight of his career to keep her out of the Élysée Palace.

Updated

The veteran France correspondent John Lichfield summed up the tension around this election campaign in a recent opinion piece for the Guardian.

Could the country really be on the point of electing a far-right president, he asked?

Le Pen’s economic programme is an incoherent mess. Her European policy is Frexit by stealth – unilaterally reducing payments to the EU budget and breaking EU laws she does not like. She also wants to ban all Muslim women from wearing veils in public.

Nonetheless, as Lichfield notes:

The opinion polls suggest that if enough leftwing voters stay at home in the second round, refusing to choose between Macron (“the president of the rich”) and a seemingly “kinder, gentler” Le Pen, then she could win. Just.

Macron may have reduced French unemployment to 7.4%, the lowest for 13 years, piloted France through Covid better than many other comparable countries, and revived the EU with his ideas and energy, Lichfield said.

On the other hand:

France is an angry country. It is always an angry country. It is especially angry at present because the Ukraine war has inflated already high petrol, diesel and food prices. But there is no real appetite in France for confrontational policies that would destroy an 80-year postwar political consensus of outward-looking tolerance and European unity ...

It is, he concludes, going to be “a scary two weeks for anyone who cares about the wellbeing of France or Europe”.

You can read John’s full piece here:

Updated

Turnout at 5pm local time - three hours before polling stations close - was 65%, more than four percentage points down on the last presidential elections but substantially higher than 2002’s record low of 58%.

France’s two-round election process, designed by Charles de Gaulle to keep extremists at bay (the French say you vote first with your heart, then with your head) can be complicated to those not familiar with it.

Here’s a brief guide to how the system works, how France’s moderate left has been plunged into disarray, how the mainstream right isn’t much better, what the leading candidates stand for, and what happens next:

The polling gap between the two favoutites has narrowed dramatically over the past few weeks. Exactly a month ago, on 10 March, Emmanuel Macron - buoyed by a rally-round-the-flag effect following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - stood at about 30% and Marine Le Pen at about 18%, according to the Guardian’s election tracker.

On average, the latest polls put the two on 26% and 23% respectively, a difference that is equivalent to many polling organisations’ margin of error. The far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise (Unbowed France) has also surged over the same period, from 12% to 17%.

Meanwhile Valérie Pécresse of the right-wing Les Républicains party has seen her support fall from 12% to 8%, and Eric Zemmour, the TV polemicist whose extreme positions on Islam and immigration have done much to make Le Pen look reasonable, has fallen from 12% to 9%.

The final pre-election poll from Ipsos France, which has the largest sample size (10,425 respondents) so should in principle be more accurate, showed Macron on 26.5%, Le Pen on 22.5% and Mélenchon on 17.5%.

Updated

Analysts are unanious in saying that turnout among a disillusioned French electorate will be absolutely critical to these elections, and at midday it stood at 25.48% - down on the three previous presidential elections (28.5 % in 2017, 28.3 % in 2012 and 31.2 % in 2007), but up on 2002 (21.4%) which, for those of you with long mempories, was the year that Marine Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie made it into the second round.

It’s hard to say at this stage who this might benefit. A low turnout is widely believed to be bad news for the far-right leader, because it could be a sign that her supporters, who often fail to show up on voting day in the kind of numbers that the polls predicted, may again be staying away.

On the other hand, some of the detail in those midday turnout figures could be ringing a few alarm bells in the president’s camp: abstention looks to be higher in the Paris region, which was heavily pro-Macron in the last elections in 2017, whereas turnout in some areas that voted predminantly for Le Pen five years ago seems to be significantly higher.

The next turnout figures are expected at 5pm local time, so we may get a clearer idea then. But there will be no certainty about what it all means until the first projections when polls close at 8pm - these are not, by the way, exit polls, but estimations based on actual votes cast in a representative selection of polling stations nationwide. They are usually very accurate.

Updated

It's election day in France

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of the first round of the 2022 French presidential election.

It looks like being a nail-bitingly close-run thing, with opinion polls showing the gap between Marine Le Pen of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) and the outgoing president, centrist Emmanuel Macron, steadily narrowing over the past few weeks.

Those two candidates remain favourites to advance to the 24 April run-off that will determine who occupies the Elysée palace for the next five years, although support for the radical left-winger Jean-Luc Mélenchon has also been climbing and the level of abstention could play havoc with all pre-election forecasts.

It’s been a strange, muted campaign that in many ways never really got off the ground, hijacked first by the pandemic and then by the war in Ukraine. But its consequences could well prove far-reaching, not just for the future direction of France but for Europe as a whole.

We’ll be bringing you news, comment and analysis from me, the Guardian’s Paris bureau chief Angelique Chrisafis and correspondent Kim Willsher, with usually accurate projections of the first round results expected when polling stations close at 8pm local time.

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