European governments have quietly begun adapting their policies for the hitherto unthinkable prospect that France, a founder member of the EU, may elect a far-right nationalist president next year. Germany may be Europe’s biggest economy and most populous state, but nuclear-armed France is the pivotal military power.
More than a year before the French choose a successor to Emmanuel Macron, the possibility of a rightwing populist government in France led by Marine Le Pen or her protege, Jordan Bardella, is keeping policymakers awake in Brussels, Berlin and Kyiv. While European leaders regard Macron with respect (and occasional irritation) as an experienced peer, they are gazing with growing anxiety over his shoulder to see who may follow him in May 2027 and what problems that could pose for the bloc, Nato and Ukraine.
