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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Science
Robin McKie

Fourscore years and … how many more? Why greater longevity is a false challenge

Jeanne Calment, pictured on her 121st birthday in 1996
Jeanne Calment, on her 121st birthday in 1996, was the oldest person ever to have lived. She died a year later. Photograph: Sipa/REX/Shutterstock

Over the past 180 years, lives in England have gone through a remarkable transformation. Men and women today are, on average, living twice as long as they did in 1841 with life expectancy increasing from 40.2 years to 78.6 years for males, and from 42.3 years to 82.6 years for females. The change is also reflected in many other parts of the world and has been achieved through vaccinations that protect against childhood illnesses, vastly improved sanitation, and a host of other factors.

But how long is that rise likely to continue? What will lifespans be like by the end of the century? More and more men and women are likely to live to ripe ages, say scientists. One prediction suggests the global population of centenarians will have reached almost 4 million by 2050 – from just 95,000 in 1990. Some scientists have even suggested that some lifespans could reach 150 years.

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