Very few passing offenses are capable of supporting a top-12 fantasy wide receiver, let alone two.
Seven duos have posted WR1 campaigns over the last five years — none of them have repeated. In fact, the only player to appear on the list twice is Adam Thielen, who accomplished this feat alongside Stefon Diggs in 2018 and again with Justin Jefferson in 2020.
Two pairs of receivers — Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith — finished as WR1s a year ago. And heading into 2023, those four are being drafted among the top-12 wideouts in hopes that they can repeat that success in 2023.
Let’s look into the likelihood that the Dolphins and Eagles wide receiver duos can string together a second consecutive season among the highest scorers at their position and explore some other pass-catching pairings that could be in contention as well.
(Player finishes and ADP data based on PPR scoring.)
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Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins
Hill and Waddle won in different ways last season. For Hill, volume was the name of the game in his first season with the Dolphins while Waddle adjusted to the All-Pro’s arrival by upping his efficiency as his involvement took a step back. Together, they had career-best campaigns even as Tua Tagovailoa missed time due to multiple concussions. Hill’s final line was 119 receptions on 170 targets for 1,710 yards — he finished top-three in each category — and seven scores. Waddle went for 75 catches on 117 targets, well shy of his rookie numbers, but he nearly doubled his yards per catch from 9.8 to 18.1 to tally 1,356 yards in addition to eight touchdowns. Hill ended the year as the WR2; Waddle came in at WR8.
Mike Gesicki, Miami’s third-most targeted player, left in free agency and the addition of Chosen Anderson shouldn’t take targets away from Hill and Waddle. It’s hard to envision the Dolphins passing more often seeing as they just did so on nearly 62% of their plays, one of the highest rates in the NFL. However, if Tagovailoa can hold up for 16 games or even a full 17-game season, that means more high-quality looks going to two of the fastest wideouts in the league. In Year 2 with coach Mike McDaniel dialing up the offense, perhaps they’re even being undervalued: Hill is the WR3 by average draft position and Waddle is the WR11.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Eagles
Only 10 players in the league commanded 25% target shares in 2022 — Brown and Smith were the only teammates to do so. Together, they accounted for more than half of the Eagles’ total targets and they made the most of the opportunities that came their way: Brown with 88 catches on 145 targets for 1,496 yards and 11 touchdowns, Smith with 95 receptions on 136 targets for 1,196 yards and nine scores. Brown’s 17 yards per catch was also the third-highest mark in the NFL among qualified pass-catchers. Brown and Smith finished sixth and ninth, respectively, in PPR scoring as they set or matched career-highs across the board.
The Eagles didn’t add any pass-catchers who would threaten Brown or Smith’s standing in the offense since the Super Bowl and they were already a top-five unit by rushing rate (49.74%) a year ago. Philadelphia’s propensity for the ground game will not put a cap on this receiving duo’s potential as long as the lion’s share of the targets continue to be funneled their way. Brown (WR8) and Smith (WR12) both have clear pathways to delivering on their draft price as Jalen Hurts heads into his third season as the starter under center.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Bengals
Chase and Higgins have never both been among the top-12 receivers at the season’s end. The former has done so twice in two years, even though he played just 12 games in 2022, while the latter has never finished better than WR18. Chase burst onto the scene as a rookie and picked up where he and Joe Burrow left off at LSU. Higgins’s stats have been solid but his ceiling is capped, seeing as he’s never fielded a 20% target share. Chase outpaced his teammate across the board in four fewer games last season with 134 targets, 87 catches, 1,046 yards and nine touchdowns compared with Higgins’ 110 targets, 74 catches, 1,029 yards and seven scores. Chase ended up as the WR12 (WR3 by points per game) — Higgins came in at WR18.
These two clearly have the potential to finish among the league’s elite fantasy pass-catchers. There’s no concern about Chase, a target machine with a nose for the end zone and a strong rapport with his quarterback. If Higgins continues his trend of upward ascent (WR28, WR24, WR18), he could be on the cusp of a top-12 finish. It would take a sizable spike in his target share or a bump in touchdown production for that to happen, though. Fantasy managers clearly believe in both players’ potential considering Chase is being drafted as the WR2 (and No. 2 player overall) and Higgins can be found at WR14.
D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Seahawks
Metcalf and Lockett have both been top-12 before and they nearly did it again in 2022. Metcalf was the WR7 and Lockett the WR8 in 2020 and just last year Lockett finished at WR13 and Metcalf was a few spots back at WR15. Lockett tallied 117 targets, 84 catches, 1,033 yards and nine touchdowns while Metcalf accounted for 141 targets, 90 catches, 1,048 yards and six scores. That they nearly accomplished this in their first year with Geno Smith under center after years of catching passes from Russell Wilson is wildly impressive. It also bodes well for their hopes in 2023.
Despite career-bests in receptions and targets, Metcalf had a career-low in touchdowns while Lockett more or less repeated the same stats he’s put up the previous three years in Seattle. Another season with Smith under center should spell more success, though the arrival of first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba could take targets away from both veterans. He’s unlikely to considerably cut into their workloads, but unless the Seahawks pass at a higher rate it will be an uphill climb for both to finish top-12 barring double-digit touchdown seasons. The good news is they’re both going at steep discounts compared to what they’ve accomplished in recent years: Metcalf is the WR15 and Lockett is all the way down at WR32, just one spot ahead of Smith-Njigba.
