THE most 50 marginal seats predicted for the General Election have been revealed in new research – including four held by the SNP which are expected to be on a “knife edge”.
According to the research, which was undertaken by Electoral Calculus and published by news website LabourList, the seat in Scotland which is likely to see the tightest contest is Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch.
It was won by Stuart McDonald in 2019 with a majority of nearly 13,000 under old constituency boundaries.
In the forthcoming General Election, it’s expected to be held by the SNP, but with a majority of only seven votes, according to the research which is based on new boundaries and one national poll showing a large Labour lead.
That makes it the second tightest contest behind former Tory minister Therese Coffey, with Labour predicted to win her Suffolk Coastal seat by just one vote.
Other seats on the top 50 list include Livingston, which is also affected by boundary changes in the next General Election.
In 2019, the SNP’s Hannah Bardell held the seat with a majority of nearly 13,500 – but the research predicts it will be a Labour win this time around by 206 votes.
Other seats in Scotland which appear in the top 50 most marginal will also have changes to their boundary -this includes Paisley and Renfrewshire South, currently held by SNP Westminster deputy leader Mhairi Black who has announced she will not be seeking re-election.
The Electoral Calculus Research predicts this will also be a Labour win with a majority of 286.
Meanwhile Paisley and Renfrewshire North, which was won by the SNP’s Gavin Newlands in 2019, is also predicted to go to Labour with a majority of just 582.
Other seats which make the list include the constituency held by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, which will be known as Richmond and Northallerton at the next General Election.
This is predicted to be a Conservative hold – but only by 146 votes.
Last week Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s tax-cutting Autumn Statement triggered speculation that a General Election could be held in spring.
He later insisted he has not discussed the timing of the general election with Sunak, but did not rule out an early spring Budget.
He said he did not know whether a spring general election was being considered by the Prime Minister.
Asked by Sky News whether the National Insurance cut being brought forward to January was paving the way for a May election, Hunt said: “That is a decision for the Prime Minister.
“We’ve had no discussions on the topic.”
A General Election could be called any time between now and 17 December 2024, which will mark exactly five years since parliament first met after the last General Election.
Other possible dates which have been speculated on include a late election held at the last possible moment – which would be in January 2025.
The UK going to the polls in autumn next year has also been suggested as a possibility, which would give the Conservatives more time to try to close the gap in the polls with Labour.
A poll by YouGov found Tory support increased by four points following the Autumn Statement – but Labour are well still ahead by 19 points.
