Plots to oust Liz Truss as prime minister are intensifying at break-neck speed, but there remains neither a mechanism to force her from office nor, so far, an acceptable unity candidate that would bring the Conservative party back together.
There are, however, still a number of possible scenarios that could prove fatally destabilising for her premiership.
1. Enough MPs decide ‘the game is up’
Believing that Truss has lost the ability to pull her premiership back from the brink, more Tory MPs than the half dozen who have already gone public could call openly for her to quit.
Fearful that the longer they wait, the less chance there is to repair the damage she has done to the Conservative brand, backbenchers and ministers decide that moving quickly is the cleanest course of action.
With vacant roles on the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs filled, the “men in grey suits” may bow to pressure to change internal party rules and allow a no-confidence ballot as the number of letters calling for a vote pile up – well exceeding the 15% threshold that would normally trigger one.
Graham Brady, the 1922 Committee chairman, who has been having regular meetings with Truss, could instead go to her a final time – as he did with Boris Johnson and Theresa May – and tell the prime minister to fall on her sword or be forced out the hard way.
2. Chancellor’s Halloween statement proves more ‘trick’ than ‘treat’
With Jeremy Hunt having managed to settle the markets and most MPs’ nerves during his first four days in office, all eyes are on the big measures he will unveil on 31 October.
The chancellor has already made clear swingeing spending cuts are likely and has hinted at possible tax rises to fill around half of the estimated £70bn fiscal black hole.
Those moves will probably lead to allegations of a return to austerity and criticism that public services face being stretched even thinner at a time when budgets are already under strain given high levels of inflation.
Truss has already been forced to make U-turns on most of her tax cuts, and if she has to do so on another leadership pledge – not to cut public spending – many MPs may be left asking why they should stick by her.
Equally, if forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility paint an incredibly bleak picture of the winter ahead and pin responsibility for the depth of a possible recession on the ill-fated mini-budget, MPs may decide to move against Truss.
While many of the supply-side reforms promised by Truss are still likely to be announced, some of these – including the controversial easing of planning regulation or watering down of environmental protections – could compound MPs’ concerns.
3. Byelections leave Truss bruised
Rumours are rife in Westminster about Tory MPs considering standing down from parliament – jumping before they are pushed in a potential election wipeout.
They believe their stock is still relatively high while the party is in government, but if Labour enters power then their value to future employers looking for key contacts and policy insight would be diminished significantly. With that in mind, some are weighing up triggering a byelection, which could potentially cause Truss some major headaches.
Some serving MPs may have to resign their seats if they get peerages in Johnson’s resignation honours list.
Given Truss’s almost rock-bottom personal ratings and the fact the Conservative party is dragging behind by 30 points in most polls, it would be a bruising campaign trail – and the results would spark fresh concern among MPs that hundreds of their seats would be lost come the general election.
Poor byelection results contributed to Johnson’s downfall, with the party chair, Oliver Dowden, one of the earliest cabinet resignations after the Tiverton and Honiton constituency flipped to the Lib Dems and Wakefield to Labour.
There is only one byelection coming up, in the safe Labour seat of West Lancashire. Any more triggered in former “red wall” seats or traditional Tory heartlands would put Truss’s position in peril again.
4. Local elections offer glimpse of potential general election wipeout
If Truss is lucky and avoids any immediate tests of the Conservatives’ electoral success, she cannot avoid them forever.
Local elections were a danger point for Johnson, whose party had a disastrous night, even losing control of its flagship council of Wandsworth in London.
In May next year, many shire councils are up for grabs and the mood among councillors is already dark.
One senior Tory local government figure said: “Councillors know their seats are at risk next year, and Liz Truss is the real reason.” Another admitted: “We’re resigned to losing control [of our council], as most are.”
Local elections can act as an early warning signal, and councillors are in effect first in the line of fire while MPs wait nervously to see how local representatives fare in their patch. So a poor performance in the spring could spell trouble for Truss.
