David Crisafulli will be breaking a promise either way. He said he’d keep his old opposition frontbench in place after the election. He also promised to lead a forward-thinking, modern-looking government.
It’s unlikely he can do both.
Before Crisafulli became the LNP leader, the party had been an unwelcoming place for aspiring women. In opposition, 29 of the 35 LNP MPs were white men. The rest were white women.
The new premier had spoken about wanting to attract a more diverse cohort of candidates (just without using quotas) and those efforts delivered mixed results. Of the seats already called after the state election, nine of 15 new LNP MPs are men. There are two new Davids (now four in total) and two Nigels.
Ariana Doolan, 22, the youngest woman ever elected to the state parliament, will also be the only member of the new government from a non-European cultural background.
The test that looms for Crisafulli is picking a cabinet. The process amounts to designing a public face for his government. And he appears well aware, after failing to make significant progress in Brisbane, that his party will have to demonstrate it can be a moderate, reasonable government.
Many believe part of the reason the LNP couldn’t crack Brisbane – even as it won big swings elsewhere in the state – was that it could point to no track record whatsoever of running an effective centre-right government.
This is also the reason that abortion campaigns were able to gain so much traction. The last time Brisbane voted for someone they thought was a “moderate” they got Campbell Newman, who scrapped same-sex civil unions after lobbying from the Australian Christian Lobby, introduced “draconian” anti-association laws, sold assets, sacked thousands of public servants, and brawled with the party’s backroom boys.
Modern Brisbane, in many ways, was shaped by the scars of the Joh Bjelke-Petersen era.
In a nutshell, the city just doesn’t seem to trust the LNP to run the state.
This might, on face value, present a problem for the incoming premier. But it should also present an opportunity to remove the biggest barrier to the party’s progress in the city.
A Labor MP noted privately that Crisafulli’s speech on election night was “impressive”, humble and non-combative. Minutes after Steven Miles conceded – and in the process began taking up attacks as the presumptive new opposition leader – the premier-elect began acting like a statesman.
“To think that the son of a factory worker could be the 40th premier of this state tells you everything that you need to know about how great Queensland is,” he said, thanking Miles, then defeated Labor MPs, for their service.
Crisafulli has already written to public servants assuring them of no plans for Newman-style sackings. The gameplan for the next four years is clear. No antagonism. No culture wars. A government that will attempt stability and civility.
The same Labor MP who noted Crisafulli’s impressive speech also made another observation.
“I don’t think there’s a lot of talent in that team.”
And so we wait for the announcement of Crisafulli’s new cabinet. His challenge, having spoken about the need to lead a more diverse team into government, is making a not-very-diverse team feel more representative of Queenslanders.
Having held no seat north of Burdekin before the election, Crisafulli would need to add at least one north Queenslander to the frontbench. People in Townsville take notes. The quickest way to lose those three seats is to send a signal that it’s people from Brisbane making decisions.
The second challenge is upping the representation of women. The former Brisbane councillor Amanda Cooper, leading in Aspley, is an obvious choice but might be hampered by the fact her seat remains too close to call and the new government needs to get to work.
One LNP moderate says the new premier would be wise to give Doolan a public-facing role in the new government, if not a ministry, if she can find the time to fit some extra responsibilities around completing her studies.
LNP sources says that star candidate Amanda Stoker isn’t in line for a gig. Crisafulli can’t antagonise the LNP’s Christians and conservatives by locking out MPs who oppose abortion, but he can be careful about not letting them have reign over social policy.
He likely can’t risk antagonising the right by keeping Stoker on the outer permanently – the campaign for her promotion will gain momentum sooner rather than later. But he can keep her away from places where her previous views – on abortion, nuclear power, curriculum reform etc – won’t whip up unnecessary angst.
Crisafulli enters government with little mandate for reform and facing a plethora of risks; not least the targets he’s made for the backs of new ministers, and himself, by promising to meet KPIs and crime reduction targets.
But if Crisafulli can show voters a less-threatening version of an LNP government, he could well decimate Labor in four years’ time.
There is a school of thought that a truly moderate LNP – freed of the spectre of Newman and Sir Joh – would be an almost-unstoppable political force in Queensland.
Ben Smee is Guardian Australia’s Queensland state correspondent
