Lewis McGugan believes Nottingham Forest could be four more points from Premier League safety as the relegation race reaches its crescendo.
The Reds were eight minutes plus injury time from a win at Brentford that would have seen them need to beat bottom of the table Southampton to secure safety in all likelihood.
Now they must beat the Saints next Monday to keep their head above water, but former Forest midfielder McGugan is confident they will stay up if they do with Leeds, Leicester and Everton in equally bad or even worse form.
Forest are currently 18th with four games to play, level on points with Leeds and Leicester and one ahead of Everton, with Southampton a further five points back.
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"Thirty four," he said when asked how many points were needed on the latest Garibaldi Red podcast. "I just can't see the other teams winning a game.
"I look at all their fixtures now. In the positions they're in and with the performances they're putting in, I just can't see where three points comes from.
"We all know what football is like. Leeds might go and beat Man City now. That's what can happen. From a positive standpoint, I just look at it and most important, take care of what we need to do and beat Southampton.
"Three games after that - can we nick a point? Hopefully that may be enough."
Forest have kept faith with Steve Cooper as manager all season with the four teams around them having changed at least once.
Leeds have today parted company with director of football Victor Orta and are set to name Sam Allardyce as their third manager of the season, while Everton are yet to see Sean Dyche transform their fortunes.
"At this point in time, we've come across a formation," McGugan said. "We look at the other teams around us, Everton - I don't think they know what they are. That isn't the team Sean Dyche had at Burnley.
"It's need must. He has to stay in the league and come away from what he likes. When you look at Leeds with Allardyce. I'm not sure how that fits.
"If he'd come in with 10 games to go I could see it as managers like him can churn out results. At this point in time, Leeds don't need the odd point, they need some wins.
"We're a team who has found an identity we look quite comfortable in. I don't see that in other teams."
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