A mining analyst says foreign ownership of Australia's gold industry would rise above 50 per cent if a $24.4 billion takeover bid for the country's biggest producer is successful.
Melbourne-based Surbiton Associates has released its 2022 analysis of Australian gold production, which totalled 313 tonnes, the equivalent of about 10 million ounces.
The result, worth about $26 billion, was down slightly from 315 tonnes in 2021 and a record 327 tonnes in 2020.
Surbiton's managing director, Sandra Close, who last year published her second book documenting the past 40 years of Australia's gold industry, said the sector's output had risen dramatically from less than 20 tonnes in 1982.
"Around 9,500 tonnes of gold has been produced over that period," Dr Close said.
The latest production numbers have been released against the backdrop of increasing corporate activity in the Australian gold sector and changing exchange rates.
Gold miner rejects US bid
On February 6, US mining giant Newmont Corporation launched an all-scrip bid for Australia's Newcrest Mining, worth $24.4 billion.
The offer was rejected by Newcrest's board on February 16 in a statement to the ASX saying it "did not represent sufficient value".
"In order to determine if Newmont can provide an improved proposal for consideration by the board that appropriately reflects the value of Newcrest, the board has indicated to Newmont that it is prepared to provide access to limited, non-public information on a non-exclusive basis," Newcrest said.
"The provision of this information is subject to certain conditions including signing of an appropriate non-disclosure agreement.
"There is no certainty that any further discussions with Newmont will lead to a revised proposal or any transaction."
Newcrest dates back to 1966 when Newmont Mining established an Australian subsidiary, then known as Newmont Australia.
The company changed its name to Newcrest Mining in 1990 after merging with BHP Gold.
Sharp change in exchange rates
Dr Close said the US dollar gold price fell by $US101 an ounce in February, the sharpest decline in almost two years.
Significantly, she said, the Australian dollar gold price declined by only $14 an ounce over the same period.
Dr Close said further changes in exchange rates, amid increasing interest rates worldwide, could see further corporate activity in the Australian gold space.
"In the early 2000s, the control of the Australian gold industry stood at 80 per cent," Dr Close said.
"It dropped to just under 30 per cent Australian control as overseas gold companies bought up Australian operations, and it was when the Aussie dollar was down around 50 cents, so it was pretty cheap for them to buy the operations.
"Over time, a lot of those operations were sold, so we're currently looking at 60 per cent Australian control in the gold industry.
"But the recent announcement with Newmont and Newcrest, and we'll be watching that closely, if that did go ahead it would mean Australian control would fall just below 50 per cent again.
"Whether we'd see yet another round of acquisitions as we did in the early 2000s is a pretty interesting question."
According to Surbiton's report, Boddington produced 798,000 ounces last year to rank as Australia's biggest producing mine, ahead of Newcrest's Cadia operation (647,790oz) in NSW and Newmont's Tanami operation (484,000oz) in the Northern Territory.
The Kalgoorlie Super Pit and the Tropicana gold mine, 330 kilometres north-east of Kalgoorlie-Boulder, rounded out the top five with 469,084oz and 438,665oz respectively.
The Australian dollar gold price last traded at $2,742 an ounce, according to Kitco data, while the US dollar gold price was $1,856 an ounce.
