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ABC News
ABC News
National

Forecasters warn there's 'no room for complacency' for Queensland's summer cyclone season

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has warned conditions are the ripest they have been in years for an active summer cyclone season.

Senior climatologist Greg Browning said the combination of La Niña conditions and warm ocean temperatures around northern Australia had contributed to the increased risk.

"Certainly this season is probably more favourable than any season we've seen for some time," he said. 

The surface temperature of the Coral Sea during December was the second hottest since records began in 1900. 

A tropical low several hundred kilometres off the Cairns coast brought torrential rain and flooding to central and north Queensland over the past week.

It was expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Saturday morning, but the weather bureau later gave an update that no significant systems were expected to develop in the next seven days.

The BOM's latest cyclone outlook, released in October, predicted an above-average number of tropical cyclones this season

Since records began in 1970, Australia has seen an average of 11 cyclones a year, with four typically crossing the coast. 

"There has actually been quite a significant trend in a reduction of tropical cyclone activity across the Australian region," Mr Browning said.

"It's actually been relatively unusual since about 2000 that we've seen more than 11 tropical cyclones in a season.

"The average now is closer to nine per season."

Australia has seen two cyclones so far this summer — Tropical Cyclone Darian in the Indian Ocean, and Tropical Cyclone Ellie — which brought a deluge to the Northern Territory and Kimberley. 

"Those numbers are pretty clear that we are really we haven't reached the peak period of the season, which is normally February," Mr Browning said. 

"When you're in a La Niña year, which we currently still are, the risk increases statistically."

Mr Browning said Queensland sees an average of four tropical cyclones develop each cyclone season. 

"We haven't really had a major tropical cyclone in Queensland probably since Debbie," he said. 

"You just don't know where and when the cyclone is going to hit, so really, there's certainly no room for complacency at this time of the year."

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