Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where quality Tree depth will be tested at Stanford:
MORE DASH: Melee in Big House | Six CFP Q’s | CFP History
Third Quarter
Yormark Hits His Mark
Word trickled out Sunday that the Big 12 (21) has a media-rights deal with ESPN and Fox, and it carries an increase in per-team revenue over the existing contract. Securing more money despite losing tentpole members Texas and Oklahoma—and doing it quickly, as uncertainty roils the college landscape—is a great development for the league. It backs up the confident rhetoric that flowed from new commissioner Brett Yormark since taking charge in July, and refutes some of his critics who questioned whether a complete collegiate outsider was what the conference needed.
Among the comments to The Dash when news of Yormark’s hiring broke:
“What’s his name again?” one Big 12 athletic director asked. “Does he know anything about our business?”
“I’m not familiar with that name,” another Big 12 AD said, after a pause. “I guess we’ll put on good concerts? Just because you don’t know someone doesn’t mean they won’t be a good choice. But this isn’t a time for a lot of on-the-job training.”
And this from outside the league: “I would like to be optimistic, but this is a disaster in the making.”
Charlie Riedel/AP
So far, no disasters. Yormark accelerated the timetable for a media rights deal, got ahead of the Pac-12 in locking it in and sent a clear signal that the league is viable for the long term. Yormark made it abundantly clear that he was coming on board with the overriding goal of lining the league’s coffers with more money (“The Big 12 is open for business,” he said memorably), and he’s done that.
Meanwhile, the process of transitioning away from an Oklahoma-Texas power base continues to go surprisingly well on the football field. Last year’s Big 12 championship game was a thriller between Baylor and Oklahoma State. This year’s title chase is, for the moment, led by undefeated TCU (8–0, 5–0 in the league) and Kansas State (6–2, 4–1 in the league). The conference depth is impressive.
So, what does this mean for the rest of the Power 5 conference landscape? A couple of things:
It should increase both the urgency and the optimism for commissioner George Kliavkoff and the Pac-12 (22), which is losing USC and UCLA in 2024 and has been pitted against the Big 12 in a fight for survival. That fight has some merit but also some hyperbole attached. (The commissioners did their part to fan the flames by chirping at each other.)
While there is a perception that Yormark’s quick work stems from the Big 12 having more to sell than the Pac-12, the reality is that both leagues should end up cashing in despite the upcoming departure of key members. Media rights fees are going up across the college athletics industry, as evidenced by the massive deal the Big Ten locked up during the summer and what the Big 12 has just agreed to. The Pac-12 is likely to announce a deal (soon) that goes heavily into alternatives to linear TV, which is a consumer trade-off, but it should help bring in enough revenue to keep the league on nearly even footing with the Big 12.
If that’s the case, both leagues have the chance to stabilize and survive without raiding each other. Which would be a good thing. Then we’ll see whether either (or both) dip into the Group of 5 leagues for additional members.
If it plays out that way, the one lever that can flip everything remains Notre Dame (23). If it can maintain independence while raking in a significant increase in revenue when its deal with NBC expires after 2024, the earth does not shake. If that changes, everything returns to crisis mode.
The conference that should be wary of an increasingly restless membership is the ACC (24). Its 14 football schools are watching revenues increase across the board while they’re still stuck in a contract that doesn’t expire until 2036. If leagues that were presumed to be on life support over the last 15 months are suddenly bringing in more money per school than the ACC—and will be for more than a decade to come—that won’t sit well in places like Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina.
So far, nobody has been able to figure out a way to change the ACC’s status quo. ESPN has no interest in changing that contract, and the league has no interest in lessening what would be massive exit fees for any members looking to bail. The league is having a pretty good football season at the top, with Clemson in strong College Football Playoff contention and North Carolina still in the mix as well, but there is some chafing over the long-term forecast.
As the Lesser 3 of the Power 5 jockey for position, it’s worth remembering that a growing chasm remains between them and the revenue kings, the SEC (25) and Big Ten (26). They’re currently leading the way on the field—check the first CFP rankings Tuesday night for confirmation—and eventually they will be even further ahead at the bank.
The November Games That Will Shape the Playoff Race
Realistically, the CFP field has been whittled to 13 teams—the group of Power 5 programs that have one loss or fewer. That list: Clemson, North Carolina, TCU, Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi.
Here is how they will further separate themselves over four momentous weekends in the month ahead:
Nov. 5 (27)—This is a massive day in the SEC, with first place on the line in both divisions. The headliner is in the East: Tennessee (8–0) at Georgia (8–0), a clash of unbeatens that have shown little weakness to date. The West has its own compelling matchup in Alabama (7–1) at LSU (6–2), as Brian Kelly tries to take down the king and establish himself in Baton Rouge.
The undercard: Clemson (8–0) at Notre Dame (5–3), a tricky road test against an unpredictable opponent that isn’t lacking for talent.
The potential trap game: UCLA (7–1) at Arizona State (3–5). The Sun Devils have played a bit better in recent weeks, winning two of their last three. It’s not likely, but this could be a Pac-12 After Dark Special.
Nov. 12 (28)—The headliner: Alabama at Mississippi (8–1). Talk about a tough double for the Crimson Tide—they come off the annual slugfest with LSU and then go into Oxford to play a dangerous team that will have an open-date advantage to rest and prepare. Is the country ready for Lane Kiffin to be the guy who delivers Ole Miss its first SEC championship game appearance? It could happen.
The undercard: TCU (8–0) at Texas (5–3), North Carolina (7–1) at Wake Forest (6–2) and Illinois (7–1) at Purdue (5–3). Tough road challenges for a trio of CFP aspirants against pretty good opponents.
The potential trap games: Louisville (5–3) at Clemson, Missouri (4–4) at Tennessee, Georgia at Mississippi State (5–3). These three Playoff contenders will be coming off big games and can’t afford a hangover against tricky opponents. The Cardinals have turned around their season; the Tigers pushed Georgia hard and just upset South Carolina on the road; and the Bulldogs will try to cowbell Georgia into submission.
Nov. 19 (29). The headliner: The Pac-12 takes center stage with two showdowns, Utah (6–2) at Oregon (7–1) and USC (7–1) at UCLA. The league has scrapped divisions and will take its top two teams for the conference title game, and all four of these are in the mix. Three are still in the mix to give the Pac-12 its first CFP bid since 2016.
The undercard: Illinois at Michigan (8–0). A matchup that absolutely nobody was talking about before the season is now both a potential Playoff eliminator and a Big Ten title game preview. This could be smashmouth heaven, with two great running backs hammering away at defenses that do not yield.
The potential trap games: Ohio State (8–0) at Maryland (6–2), Georgia at Kentucky (5–3), TCU at Baylor (5–3), Ole Miss at Arkansas (5–3). It would not be a shock to see one or more Playoff dreams derailed that day on the home field of an unranked opponent.
Nov. 26 (30). The headliner: Michigan at Ohio State. This is merely the most impactful game remaining in the regular season. The loser of Tennessee-Georgia probably has a better Playoff survivability chance than the loser of this game.
The weekday undercard: On Thanksgiving night, Ole Miss and Mississippi State do their Egg Bowl thing; on Friday, North Carolina State visits North Carolina and UCLA plays at California. The Golden Bears, jilted partners with UCLA in the same state educational system, would certainly love to throw some season ruination at the Bruins.
The Saturday undercard: Notre Dame at USC. Great rivalry game that could carry national championship stakes for the Trojans for the first time since the Pete Carroll era.
Potential trap games: Oregon at Oregon State (6–2); South Carolina (5–3) at Clemson. The Beavers are capable of derailing the Ducks. The Gamecocks would probably need some real BeamerBall developments on special teams to end their seven-game losing streak against the Tigers.
