Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (conference relocation maps sold separately):
First Quarter: The Buzzin’ Dozen
The 12-team College Football Playoff will be the greatest thing to happen to this hot mess of a sport since the Wishbone, and if you don’t believe The Dash then just stick around a few months and see. There will be 25 teams and 25 fan bases in the mix for playoff spots come November, with multiple layers of intrigue. Who will earn automatic bids and first-round byes? Who will be the first-ever FBS playoff hosts? Which relative Cinderella squad gets the Group of 5 spot?
There will be some playoff mismatches, yes. But there will also be the potential for major, memorable upsets.
There will be some repetition from the regular season, yes. But there also will be rematches that add layers of familiarity, revenge and strategic adjustments.
There will be some fan fatigue with a season that stretches into the second half of January and competes for a longer span with the NFL playoffs, yes. But you’ll miss college football when it’s gone, and this way it’s gone for a shorter part of the calendar.
There will be controversy, yes. But since when has controversy not been part of deciding who’s No. 1 in college football? And far better to rend garments and gnash teeth over who is No. 11 than who is No. 4.
With more meaningful postseason games, the transition dynamics that sullied the postseason in the past should be lessened. Fewer players will opt out and (one would hope) fewer coaches will prematurely bolt for new jobs.
The only regret is that this evolution didn’t happen sooner, saving us decades of subjective guesswork in declaring national champions. Imagine if, instead of the advent of The Associated Press poll in 1936, they’d started a 12-team playoff with the current format instead.
Santa Clara and two Ivy League teams would have been in the field, a sign of how much the sport has evolved over the past 88 years. The Big Ten (Minnesota) and SEC (LSU) would have squabbled over who should be the No. 1 seed, a sign that some things never change.
Anyway, it will all be a blast. Now it’s The Dash’s great privilege to tell you exactly how the first 12-team playoff will unfold.
The 12 Teams and Their Seeding
Ohio State Buckeyes (1). What’s to like: The Buckeyes machine spent $20 million putting together a roster that could have the best units in the country at running back, receiver, defensive line and secondary. And the rest of them aren’t bad, either. The nagging concern: The pressure to win it all eats this team alive. Alternative concern: Transfer QB Will Howard isn’t quite good enough. Predicted record heading into the playoff: 13–0. Playoff status: Big Ten champion, automatic bid, first-round bye.
Georgia Bulldogs (2). What’s to like: Much like the Buckeyes, the Bulldogs have widespread excellence across the roster. They also have a coach who’s done it before—one of just three active head coaches who can say that in 2024. The nagging concern: Is this program still buttoned-up enough off the field to win championships? Predicted record heading into the playoff: 12–1. Playoff status: SEC champion, automatic bid, first-round bye.
Utah Utes (3). What’s to like: An old winner at quarterback (25-year-old Cam Rising), an old winner head coach (64-year-old Kyle Whittingham) and the customary Ute defense (Utes haven’t allowed 400 yards per game average for a season since 1996, and rarely have allowed more than 350). The nagging concern: Is there sufficient talent on the offensive line and at running back to have a reliable ground game? Predicted record heading into the playoff: 11–2. Playoff status: Big 12 champion, automatic bid, first-round bye.
Virginia Tech Hokies (4). What’s to like: The top of the league looks like a hot mess after Week Zero, with the newcomer SMU Mustangs barely escaping at Nevada and reigning champion Florida State losing to Georgia Tech in Ireland. Tech has abundant experience at every position in Brent Pry’s third year, led by underrated quarterback Kyron Drones. The nagging concern: Going from 7–6 to league champs is a big ask. Four of the first six games are on the road, including back-to-back trips to Miami and Stanford. Predicted record heading into the playoff: 10–3. Playoff status: ACC champion, automatic bid, first-round bye.
Oregon Ducks (5). What’s to like: The only significant roster gaps after a 12–2 2023 season were ably filled via the portal, most notably replacing a QB who set the FBS record for career starts (Bo Nix, 61) with a QB who can break that record this season (Dillon Gabriel, 49 and counting). The nagging concern: Three long trips to the Midwest in a five-week stretch from Oct. 19 to Nov. 26. Does the road catch up with the Ducks then? Predicted record heading into the playoff: 11–2. Playoff status: At-large selection, hosting a first-round game.
Texas Longhorns (6). What’s to like: Steve Sarkisian proved last season he can build a program in the offseason and then deliver on game day. With all pieces in place in terms of NIL, recruiting, development and strategy, the Longhorns are BACK for the foreseeable future. The nagging concern: Major running back injuries are not a great starting point entering the SEC grind. Predicted record heading into the playoff: 11–2. Playoff status: At-large selection, hosting a first-round game.
Alabama Crimson Tide (7). What’s to like: The head coach and quarterback have 2023 playoff experience, the offensive line should be great and the defense is never lacking talent at Bama. The schedule is no layup, but the Crimson Tide do get Georgia at home and skip Texas. The nagging concern: No slight to Kalen DeBoer, but transition from The Process won’t be easy. And the transfer of star safety Caleb Downs is a huge loss. Predicted record heading into the playoff: 10–2. Playoff status: At-large selection, hosting a first-round game.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8). What’s to like: A loaded defense and a less-than-loaded schedule compared to some in the SEC and Big Ten. If Riley Leonard can throw it well enough, the offense should be fine, too. The nagging concern: Are there enough playmakers on offense? And is Marcus Freeman a playoff-caliber coach? Predicted record heading into the playoff: 11–1. Playoff status: At-large selection, hosting a first-round game.
Mississippi Rebels (9). What’s to like: Lane Kiffin appears to have finally gotten serious about big-boy football, strengthening both lines. The quarterback and offensive skill players should continue to be extremely productive. And the schedule is manageable. The nagging concern: Ole Miss was 13th in the SEC penalty yards, and there is less margin for that kind of error than ever in the league. The Rebels also have an active 12-game streak without losing a fumble, which seems overdue to end. Predicted record heading into the playoff: 10–2. Playoff status: At-large selection, going on the road for a first-round game.
Penn State Nittany Lions (10). What’s to like: Attempts have been made to upgrade the stodgy, popgun offense with the arrival of coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas and receiver Julian Fleming from Ohio State. Multiple studs remain on defense. Michigan departs the schedule and the Nittany Lions skip Oregon, too. The nagging concern: What if former five-star QB Drew Allar just isn’t the guy? And James Franklin isn’t the coach to win the big ones? Predicted record heading into the playoff: 9–3. Playoff status: At-large selection, going on the road for a first-round game.
Missouri Tigers (11). What’s to like: Tigers are in the discussion for the best receiver talent in the country. Quarterback Brady Cook is a trusted veteran. The offensive line should be very good. They should be undefeated heading into October at the very least. The nagging concern: This is a considerable defensive reboot, and Mizzou is also replacing the nation’s leading rusher. This also isn’t a program accustomed to dealing with high expectations. Predicted record heading into the playoff: 9–3. Playoff status: At-large selection, going on the road for a first-round game.
Boise State Broncos (12). What’s to like: The Broncos kept arguably the nation’s second-best running back, Ashton Jeanty, And the defense should be loaded, with 13 of the top 15 tacklers returning. The nagging concern: Spencer Danielson looked good as the interim coach but still has to prove he’s full-time, head-coach material. The rest of the offense beyond Jeanty has some proving to do. Predicted record heading into the playoff: 11–2. Playoff status: Automatic bid as the top Group of 5 conference champion.
How the Playoff Will Play Out
Boise State at Oregon, Dec. 20. Rematch of the Sept. 7 game, which is also in Eugene. On behalf of the entire Group of 5, it would greatly behoove the Broncos to be competitive in this game.
Missouri at Texas, Dec. 21. An SEC game, but not a regular-season rematch. This would ensure at least two SEC teams in the quarterfinals.
Penn State at Alabama, Dec. 21. Oh yes, this long-tradition, Big Ten vs. SEC showdown will do rather nicely as the nightcap to an epic, three-game Saturday.
Mississippi at Notre Dame, Dec. 21. How much will home field matter in this matchup? The difference between South Bend and Oxford could be anywhere from 20 to 40 degrees Fahrenheit. The Fighting Irish will be hoping for a blizzard.
Quarterfinals
Oregon vs. Virginia Tech in the Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 31. The Ducks benefit from what is the stealth catbird No. 5 seed. They draw the Group of 5 champion No. 12 seed in the first round, then an overseeded Power 4 conference champion in the quarters. Next stop, semifinals.
Texas vs. Utah in the Peach Bowl, Jan. 1. The Utes are the other overseeded league champ in this scenario. They could well be good enough to give the Longhorns a game but won’t win.
Alabama vs. Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1. Just what Kirby Smart wants to see—the Crimson Nemesis that has beaten him five times in six meetings. But Nick Saban isn’t on the other sideline anymore to induce the anxiety the Bulldogs always seemed to play with against him.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, Jan. 1. Expect the Irish to have enough defensive players on the field for every play in this game. But they’ll need 12 or more to beat these Buckeyes.
Semifinals
Ohio State vs. Oregon in the Cotton Bowl, Jan. 9. This could be their third meeting of the season—Oct. 12 in Eugene, Dec. 7 in Indianapolis, now the biggest one of the three to reach the national championship game.
Georgia vs. Texas in the Orange Bowl, Jan. 10. Another potential third meeting—in Austin on Oct. 19, in Atlanta on Dec. 7, and then in South Florida.
(If we end up with third meetings in both semifinals, expect much complaining and consternation. We’ll see how much the selection committee is inclined to manipulate seeding to avoid repeat matchups in the playoffs. The third round would be a hard one to plan for, but as simple a switch as making Texas the fifth seed and Oregon the sixth would do the trick—and produce a pair of Big Ten vs. SEC semis.)
Championship game
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Forde-Yard Dash: Way, Way Too Early Look at the 12-Team College Football Playoff.
