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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Comment
Anatol Lieven

For years, Putin didn’t invade Ukraine. What made him finally snap in 2022?

(L-R) Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the then German chancellor Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin  at the Élysée Palace in Paris on 10 December, 2019.
(L-R) Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the then German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and Vladimir Putin in December 2019. Photograph: Charles Platiau/AFP/Getty Images

Why did Vladimir Putin invade Ukraine and try to capture Kyiv in February 2022, and not years earlier? Moscow has always wanted to dominate Ukraine, and Putin has given the reasons for this in his speeches and writings. Why then did he not try to take all or most of the country after the Ukrainian revolution of 2014, rather than only annexing Crimea, and giving limited, semi-covert help to separatists in the Donbas?

On Friday’s one-year anniversary of Russia’s criminal invasion of Ukraine, it is worth thinking about precisely how we got to this point – and where things might be going.

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