Although Luxon has already shown he is sufficiently desperate for power to contemplate a deal with NZ First, those dreaming he might work with the Greens are likely to be disappointed
Opinion: The last two general elections have produced unusual outcomes. In 2017, for the first time, the party winning the largest number of seats in Parliament did not get to lead the government after coalition negotiations. And in 2020, in another first for MMP, a single party majority government was elected.
Neither outcome is likely to be repeated at this election. No party is polling anywhere near the 48-50 percent of the party vote required to secure an outright majority. Nor do the numbers seem to be there for a repetition of 2017.
The most likely outcome based on all recent polling is a National-led government in some shape or form. Labour, even if it could bring together every other party, likely to be in Parliament bar National, seems destined to end up short of a majority. The focus therefore shifts to what a National-led government might look like.
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Although the polls are narrowing, Christopher Luxon’s preferred option of a two-party coalition with Act still seems the most likely result, but the odds on that are quickly shortening. In that regard, Luxon's announcement that reluctantly he would talk to New Zealand First after the election if he needed its support to form a government will be seen as one of a generally lack-lustre campaign's significant moments.
Although Luxon will hold his nose and involve New Zealand First if that is the only way he can become Prime Minister, dealing with New Zealand First is the last thing he wants. Since his announcement, Luxon has been at pains to urge voters wanting a change of government to give their party vote to National as the only way to ensure a National-led government.
Opinion polls consistently show an overwhelming majority of voters neither trust New Zealand First nor want it anywhere near government. But the clumsy way Luxon has handled this issue means it now seems far more likely his decision will have the opposite effect, to National’s and Act’s considerable detriment.
In a political career noted for its inconsistency, Winston Peters' sole constant has been a determination to be taken seriously. Being scorned and disregarded by his colleagues caused the chip on his shoulder that saw him driven out of the National Party 30 years ago, and that chip has grown larger ever since. It explains why New Zealand First has fallen out with every government it has ever worked with.
After Luxon's announcement, New Zealand First and its leader have been getting the media attention and relevance they have craved all year and are back to their overbearing best, with Peters abusing television journalists and going so far as to proclaim that no new government can, or will, be formed without New Zealand First.
Luxon may yet feel, his denials so far notwithstanding, that given his current options of Act or New Zealand First or both, things could not be any worse trying to work with the Greens
Although this is certainly not the scenario Luxon intended, New Zealand First's resurrection to relevance is his own fault. He has unwittingly propelled it to centre stage in a way it could have only dreamed of a few weeks ago. But now it is there, it is shamelessly threatening to take control of the post-election process in the same venal way it has previously, and there is likely to be little Luxon can do about it. Peters has become the most Googled New Zealand party leader during this campaign.
Some have suggested National is quietly encouraging New Zealand First’s rise to counter the potential influence Act could have in a National-led government. This is unlikely, and, aside from the inherent dishonesty of publicly promoting Act as a preferred partner while covertly encouraging New Zealand First, such a strategy would simply allow New Zealand First to constantly play National and Act off against each other, to their joint detriment.
Others have noted James Shaw's comment that it "would be rude not to pick up" any post-election phone call from Luxon about possible coalition arrangements, leading them to speculate wistfully whether the Greens and National could ever form a teal alliance governing arrangement.
On the face of it, the notion seems absurd – the two parties have hardly anything in common. Even if the respective party leaders could cobble some sort of deal together, it would never get the support of the Greens' membership which has the final say on whether the Greens join a government or not.
But politics can on occasion make for strange bedfellows. Luxon may yet feel, his denials so far notwithstanding, that given his current options of Act or New Zealand First or both, things could not be any worse trying to work with the Greens. MMP has already shown a variety of government forms are possible.
Although unlikely, it is not impossible, given goodwill, that an arrangement could be fashioned that allows National and Act to govern without obstruction from the Greens (perhaps an abstention on confidence and supply). In return, the Greens could take the lead role on the bipartisan climate change policy Luxon says he wants. Shaw could even remain as Climate Change Minister or some form of special ambassador on climate change.
Such a deal would finally see off the increasingly quixotic and temperamental New Zealand First, and prevent another Parliament being held to ransom by it. And it would establish the Greens as the pivotal party whose support would be crucial to either future National- or Labour-led governments. But the political divide is too deep these days for the teal alliance –which has become a reality in other countries – to be anything more than a pipedream here. It may have been possible when first mooted after the 2017 election, but political lines are far more sharply drawn today than then.
Although Luxon has already shown he is sufficiently desperate for power to contemplate a deal with Peters, those dreaming he might work with the Greens, even if they were willing, look set to be disappointed. Luxon has ruled out such an option. Apparently, he prefers to sup with and try to tame the Devil he says he does not know.
