LAS VEGAS — During a stunning 34-day stretch last fall, a seismic shift in the hierarchy of women’s soccer might have portended profits to be mined in the upcoming World Cup.
The ninth WWC begins Thursday, in Australia and New Zealand, and an unfortunate theme will be key players missing from many sides.
And last fall, the United States, which has won four World Cups, lost 2-1 to England before 76,891 on Oct. 7 in London, lost 2-0 at Spain and lost 2-1 to Germany on Nov. 10 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Over the last 22 years, it was the fourth time the USWNT had lost more than twice in one calendar year.
The 2-0 loss to Spain on Oct. 11 in Pamplona, a mile south of that city’s famous bullring where Hemingway’s bulky statue stands sentry.
Maria “Misa” Rodríguez, the stellar Spanish keeper who turns 24 next Saturday, recorded the clean-sheet triumph, and defender Laia Codina and striker Esther González both scored home-side goals.
It also represented the first multiple-goal loss for the Americans since July 21, 2021, when they were thrashed 3-0 by Sweden at the Tokyo Olympics.
“Absolutely!” WagerTalk soccer handi-capper Carmine Bianco wrote me, in emails from Toronto, about Spain’s possible breakthrough Down Under.
“I think the dark horse here is Spain. They had lost two or three key players to injury before the Euros. So I know now, as a full squad, they’d like some redemption.”
Spain also features two-time Ballon d’Or winner Alexia Putellas.
At DraftKings, from Sunday to Monday, Spain was bet down from +650 to +600, or risk $100 to win $600, to become World Cup champion.
RULE BRITAnNIA?
The top-rated U.S. will miss Mallory Swanson, Becky Sauerbrunn and Catarina Macario, but it is far from the only side that has been smacked by injuries.
England (Beth Mead, Fran Kirby, Leah Williamson) Germany (Giulia Gwinn, Linda Dallmann), France (Marie-Antoinette Katoto, Delphine Cascarino), Canada, the Netherlands and the Republic of Ireland are hurting, too.
Amid all the injuries, Canada’s Janine Beckie, sidelined after knee surgery, is calling for more research to determine why women are six times more vulnerable to ACL than men.
Spain is a rare squad that doesn’t have a significant footballer on crutches.
The British, however, still sport moxie and muscle in outstanding keeper Mary Earps, and a savvy midfield of Ella Toone, Lauren Hemp and Georgia Stanway, a trio that produced 25 goals and 21 assists in European qualification matches.
A year ago, in the Euro 2022 finale at Wembley before 87,192, the Lionesses defeated perennial Continental powerhouse Germany, which owns two WWC trophies.
The arrogance of certain U.S. players has, for years, made me bristle, so I tapped Bianco for impartial input and neutral insights.
“Most agree that it’s the U.S.’ tournament to win, as decided favorites of +250,” he wrote. “But as short a price as that is, it’s probably not low enough.”
KNOCKOUT DRAMA
Should the U.S. (Group E), Spain (Group C) and England (Group D) all win their groups, the stage would be set for a possible U.S.-Spain rematch in a semifinal, Aug. 15 in Auckland.
The Lionesses would operate on the other side of the bracket, with possible knockout theatrics against Canada, a quarterfinal against Germany in Sydney and a semifinal against the Matildas in Sydney.
Although we could see France defeating the Aussies in a Brisbane quarterfinal.
Either way, a finale pitting England vs. the U.S. or Spain would be electric.
We took England, at +350, to win it all. The Lionesses are +190 to get to the title match, -270 to advance to the quarters. We also have Spain, at +650, to become world champion.
Bianco grabbed the US, at +250, and +130 to make the Aug. 20 championship match at Stadium Australia in Sydney.
He also invested in a pair of team parlays, combining Norway (to win Group A) with Australia (to take Group B) at +100, and the Mexican men to win the Gold Cup with the U.S. women to claim the WWC, at +845.
In opening-day matches, Bianco bet Norway -1.5 goals, at -145, to beat New Zealand in Auckland and Under 2.75 on Australia-Ireland in Sydney.
MLS NUGGETS
Fifth-year MLS squad FC Cincinnati (13-2-6, 45 points) entered the week atop the Eastern Conference, with newcomer St. Louis City SC (12-7-2, 38) as the shock West leader.
Cincinnati’s balanced attack and speed have impressed Bianco. It is 10-0-1, with a 21-7 goal differential, at home, where Bianco has poached profits.
If it finishes with the league’s best record, Bianco believes it will be very difficult for anyone to go to Cincy and win a playoff match.
St. Louis has surprised everyone, having played “well above any expected analytics,” Bianco wrote. With a schedule that gets difficult, though, he expects City to regress.
The Fire (6-7-8, 26 points), meanwhile, are in a battle with five others for a playoff play-in spot.
It might be wise to take the Fire, plus a half-goal, inside Soldier Field, where it has gone 4-2-6 in all competitions. That could require accessing Asian Handicaps, to secure both a victory and draw on home turf.
Recent prices for such a wager have been -213, -270 and -204, value to secure two of three outcomes with a squad that has dropped only two of 12 home matches.
