Picture the scene: the main party of the centre left is back in power after more than a decade dominated by the right. In his mid-60s, a technocratic, naturally cautious leader suddenly finds himself leading a country that seems to have lost its way. The economy is faltering, growth is anaemic, and public investment is badly needed. Yet he holds tight to fiscal discipline, with key policies – including on the climate crisis – watered down to meet tight spending rules. More than two years into his term in office the government is adrift, with a widespread sense that it lacks any vision for the future. Filling this void, the radical right is resurgent and immigration is dominating national politics. The centre left is languishing in the polls and heading for defeat at the next election.
This is not a vision of the future for Keir Starmer and his Labour party, but a description of the present in Germany. There, in 2021, Olaf Scholz unexpectedly led his centre-left Social Democratic party (SPD) back to the top of government for the first time since Gerhard Schröder lost to Angela Merkel in 2005. Having won power largely promising continuity, he has not seemed to know what to do with it. He has struggled to articulate a vision for his country, boxed in by a commitment to fiscal discipline. With few major achievements to its name, his SPD lies third in the polls behind a resurgent Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a far-right party whose politicians were recently caught openly discussing a plan to deport up to 2 million German immigrants to Africa.
