Last week we saw the S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) close 0.25% higher on the week with a strong driver being Nvidia (NVDA) which crossed back above the $120 mark. Payroll data last Friday also came in strong which helped to boost the overall market.
The beginning of this week is fairly quiet with nothing really kicking off until the FOMC minutes come out on Wednesday. Earnings also start up this Friday with some of the big banks. In addition to this there are also several Fed speakers to keep an eye out for.
Here are 5 things to watch this week in the Market.
Earnings
Earnings season is upon us again with the first earnings of any real consequence happening this Friday with a few of the large banks. JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Blackrock (BLK) are among the most important. Given how late in the last earnings season rate cuts happened it is unlikely that they will impact their earnings, but looking at how the forecast out the next several quarters and years could give some valuable insight into where the large money centers see rates, profits, and consumer spending going.
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wednesday is the first day with any real news this week and that is the FOMC meeting minutes being released at 2 pm EST. We already know what the rate decision was from the Fed announcement several weeks back, but this is an important release to see what the underlying opinions were about the state of the economy and the reason for the cut. Volatility also usually picks up around the release and traders try and decipher what future rate decisions may be, although in this case, the Fed is pretty open about looking to further cut this year.
CPI
Both the Core and base CPI are due out Thursday morning and it's likely this report will draw a lot of attention. The previous Core report was higher than anticipated with the base coming in line with expectations on both a monthly and yearly level. Watching if they revise last month's numbers along with how this month comes in could impact how much of a rate cut comes in November and even if a cut comes in November.
PPI
Coming on Friday at 8:30 AM is the PPI and Core PPI release. Similar to CPI this could produce some volatility when the report is released, and it could also be an indicator of what is coming down the line for CPI, as PPI is the producer side or price changes. Both the PPI and Core PPI came in hotter than expected last month so watching for any revision there is also important.
Dock Worker Strike
One thing that could have a profound impact on prices and the economy as a whole is the Dock Worker strike on the eastern coast of the US. At the time of this writing, a tentative agreement had been reached to suspend the strike until January 15th.
This is important because the vast majority of goods coming into the US come via boat, so the longer this continued the more supplies would get hung up on the boats. If the agreement holds, this would be great news, as further strike action could reignite inflation due to supply chain disruptions.
Best of luck this week and don’t forget to check out my daily options article.
On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
