‘Fodder for a recession’: Top economist Mark Zandi warns about so many Americans ‘already living on the financial edge’ in a K-shaped economy

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during the Hoover Institution's George P. Shultz Memorial Lecture Series in Stanford, California, US, on Monday, Dec. 1, 2025. (Credit: Jason Henry—Bloomberg/Getty Images)

Mark Zandi is worried that the labor market no longer has a buffer.

So many Americans are “already living on the financial edge,” the chief economist for Moody’s Analytics told Fortune. If they start to pull back, that’s “fodder for a recession.”

The stark assessment comes as hiring has stalled, unemployment is rising—especially for the most vulnerable workers—and layoff announcements are piling up. To Zandi, the next stage is already visible: “If we actually do see layoffs pick up,” he told Fortune, “then it certainly would be a jobs recession.”