MIAMI — A large swath of Florida’s Gulf Coast fell under hurricane and storm surge watches and warnings Monday, while the Miami area remained under a flood watch through Thursday as Hurricane Ian set its eye on the Sunshine State.
Excessive rainfall may cause flooding of rivers, creeks, streams and other low-lying and flood-prone areas from Palm Beach southward to mainland Monroe County, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.
Ian is expected to rake western Cuba overnight then turn toward Florida, pushing storm surge waters as high as 10 feet.
The latest forecast at 8 p.m. Eastern time from the National Hurricane Center continued to raise the risks for the heavily populated and vulnerable Tampa Bay area, which hasn’t been hit by a major hurricane in a century.
The projected path steers Hurricane Ian just offshore of the Tampa Bay-Bradenton area as a powerful Category 1 storm and a slower pace could add to damage from drenching rain and pounding surf. It’s ultimately expected to make landfall to the north in the Big Bend area as a slightly weaker hurricane.
But regardless of any future small shifts in the track, which forecasters warned could continue for the next few days, much of Florida’s Gulf Coast, from Naples northward, faces major risk of coastal flooding.
Jamie Rhome, acting director of the hurricane center, called it a “near worst-case scenario” for Tampa on CNN Monday afternoon.
Evacuations were already starting in the Tampa Bay metro area, home to about 3 million people. Mandatory evacuation orders were announced for the riskiest spots in Tampa Bay, Pinellas and Charlotte Counties to the north and Manatee County to the south, with voluntary evacuations also in place for areas with slightly less risk.
More orders will almost certainly follow for other parts of the west coast, including Levy County, site of potential landfall under the current track. Levy is sparsely populated, with just over 40,000 people. All counties in Florida remain under a state of emergency.
Gov. Ron DeSantis suspended some tolls in the Tampa Bay area, Polk County, parts of the Panhandle and Alligator Alley.
Southeast Florida was no longer in the cone, but rain spinning off the growing hurricane was already soaking Miami-Dade and Broward Monday night. The Lower Keys also remain under a tropical storm warning and the National Hurricane Center warned the entire region will see heavy rains this week, as well as gusty squalls from the strong storm. Power outages could occur.
New tropical storm watches were issued Monday evening north of Tampa Bay, and Tampa Bay and areas to the south were upgraded to hurricane warnings, including the Dry Tortugas.
Overnight, Ian became a well-organized hurricane, and forecasters expect it will rapidly intensify to a monster — Category 3 — before crossing Cuba’s west coast early Tuesday.
In a Monday afternoon news conference in Miami, Deanne Criswell, top administrator for FEMA, urged Floridians to evacuate if asked and to keep a close eye on the storm.
“We are ready,” she said. “We will be here through the response.”
The biggest risk that Hurricane Ian brings to Florida — no matter where it makes landfall — is storm surge.
Florida’s west coast, especially Tampa Bay, is one of the most vulnerable spots in the nation to storm surge. The scenario currently forecast, a powerful storm passing just offshore to the north, is one of the most dangerous setups.
“Do not be fooled by the forecast of weaker winds. The storm surge can still be massive — higher than anything seen in modern times,” tweeted Bryan Norcross, hurricane specialist at Fox Weather.
The hurricane center is forecasting 5 to 10 feet of storm surge in Tampa Bay, with those totals slightly decreasing further south down the west coast. The Keys, including the Dry Tortugas, could see 2 to 4 feet. And that includes this week’s king tides, the annual highest tides of the year.
“Why this big range of 5 to 10 feet? Because if the center stays a little bit offshore, maybe closer to 5, we have to prepare you — and you have to prepare you,” said Rhome, acting director of the National Hurricane Center.
Another complicating factor that could worsen the storm surge and rain associated with Hurricane Ian is its forward speed, which is expected to drop to around 5 mph when it nears Tampa Bay.
Ben Noll, a meteorologist with New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, tweeted Monday that Ian’s “forward speed will slow to a crawl as it approaches the state, prolonging wind, surge & rain impacts.”
Hurricane Ian will be a major problem for Florida's west coast starting late Tuesday.
And while South Florida remains outside of Ian’s cone of concern, the National Weather Service in Miami says the region is still expected to feel it, with storm surge flooding, heavy rain, gusty winds and isolated tornadoes possible through Thursday.
Forecasters say tropical storm conditions could begin Tuesday in the Lower Keys, which are under a tropical storm warning, and in Florida’s west coast, which is under a hurricane warning from Englewood to the Anclote River, including the Tampa Bay area. Hurricane conditions could begin along Florida’s west coast Wednesday.
The hurricane center expects Ian will bring 4 to 6 inches of rain in the Florida Keys through Thursday, with other parts of Florida possibly seeing 4 to 8 inches of rain. The central-west part of Florida could see 6 to 12 inches of rain through Thursday, with some areas possibly seeing up to 20 inches of rain. Southeast Florida and coastal southwest Florida could see 4 to 6 inches of rain and up to 10 inches in spot spots.
“Considerable flooding impacts are possible mid-to-late week in central Florida given already saturated antecedent conditions, and flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid week,” the hurricane center said. “Limited flood impacts and rises on area streams and rivers are possible over northern Florida and portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.”
Drew Bartlett, executive director of the South Florida Water Management District, said the district is expecting “significant rainfall” this week and already began lowering its canals to make room. He said that Hurricane Ian’s rainfall does not pose an immediate threat to overtop Lake Okeechobee, which is lower than usual for this time of year due to drought conditions.
“Lake Okeechobee is at a good level, such that the Corps has not had to do any water drawdowns ahead of the storm,” he said.
HURRICANE IAN WATCHES/WARNINGS
—Storm surge watch extended north along Florida’s west coast to the Anclote River.
—Storm surge warning in effect for the Anclote River southward to Flamingo and the Dry Tortugas.
—Hurricane warning in effect for: The Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa; Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay and the Dry Tortugas.
—Tropical storm warning in effect for: Flamingo to Englewood, Lower Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge west to Key West and the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas.
—A hurricane watch in effect for north of Anclote River to the Suwannee River and Bonita Beach to Englewood.
—Tropical storm watch in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge, north of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound and Lake Okeechobee
—The hurricane center says additional watches may be required later Monday for the west coast of Florida.
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