Removing Florida's school-entry vaccine requirements could set off a measles epidemic within three to five years, with peak infection rates exceeding any U.S. year since 1977, according to a mathematical model published in PNAS on Sept. 28. The United States counted 57,345 measles cases in 1977.
The projection is a worst-case scenario, not a forecast of what will happen. Florida has not removed its measles vaccine requirement for school entry. But for parents weighing school rules, exemptions, and a year of record measles activity, the model puts numbers on what could happen if coverage keeps slipping.
