-
Runoff confirmed for October 25: Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, took 47.03% of valid votes against incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 45.16%, with neither candidate clearing the 50% threshold required to win outright.
- Brazilian real surges more than 4%: Brazil's central bank PTAX reference rate settled at 4.9859 reais per dollar on October 5 — the real's strongest level in 17 months — compared with roughly 5.22 reais the preceding Friday, as markets priced a shift toward tighter fiscal policy under a potential Bolsonaro presidency.
-
Wall Street celebrates: The Ibovespa closed at a record 206,911 points, up 7.70% — its first close above 200,000 and its biggest single-session gain since March 2020 — while the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) rose 12.54% in Monday's regular U.S. session, with MercadoLibre, Petrobras, Vale, and Nu Holdings all posting double-digit gains.
The first-round result of Brazil's October 4 presidential election sent a jolt through global markets that reached from São Paulo to Buenos Aires to South Florida. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, the eldest son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a result that outperformed virtually every major poll. Neither candidate reached the 50% threshold for an outright win, locking in a runoff on October 25 that now carries the weight of every trade the market has already placed.
