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Phil Harrison

FiveThirtyEight updates its College Football Playoff Predictions, odds after wild Week 7

Sometimes it’s not necessarily what you do, but what others do around you. That seems to be the case with Ohio State football’s chances of making the College Football Playoff according to FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff Predictions after Week 7.

To be fair, the Buckeyes still have a great shot to join all the fun and perhaps make it to Los Angeles for a shot at a national title according to the popular analytics website, but they are no longer the team with the best odds of making the CFP after a wild college football weekend during which four top 10 teams lost.

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In fact, Ohio State is no longer the team with the best chance to make the playoff, that now goes to another SEC team after Tennessee took down Alabama, which had been skating on thin ice anyway.

Here’s a look at the teams with the best chance to make the CFP according to FiveThirtyEight. We’re only going with teams that have a 3% chance or better, but you can take a look at all the analytics and play around with teams winning out vs. getting a conference title to see how everything moves around.

No. 18 (tie) - Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1)

Nov. 16, 2013; University Park, Pennsylvania; General view of a Penn State Nittany Lions helmet prior to the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Beaver Stadium. Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

3% ()

Chances if win out

42%

 

No. 18 (tie) - North Carolina Tarheels (5-1)

Oct. 30, 2021; South Bend, Indiana; A detailed view of a North Carolina Tar Heels football helmet during warmups before the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

3% ()

Chances if win out

67%

 

 

No. 17 - Illinois Fighting Illini (6-1)

Dec. 30, 2019; Santa Clara, California; General view of the Illinois Fighting Illini helmet during the second quarter against California Golden Bears at Levi’s Stadium. Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

4% ()

Chances if win out

95%

 

No. 16 - Kansas State Wildcats (5-1)

Nov. 6, 2021; Lawrence, Kansas; A general view of a Kansas State Wildcats helmet against the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

5% (⇔)

Chances if win out

97%

No. 13 (tie) - Utah Utes (5-2)

Sept. 14, 2019; Salt Lake City, Utah; A general view of the helmet worn by Utah Utes quarterback Tyler Huntley (1) against the Idaho State Bengals at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

7% ()

Chances if win out

35%

 

 

No. 13 (tie) - Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1)

Jan. 1, 2022; Glendale, Arizona; Detailed view of an Oklahoma State Cowboys helmet during the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

7% ()

Chances if win out

93%

No. 13 (tie) - Syracuse Orange (6-0)

Sept. 16, 2017; Syracuse, New York; General view of a Syracuse Orange helmet on the turf prior to the game against the Central Michigan Chippewas at the Carrier Dome. Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

7% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 11 (tie) - USC Trojans (6-1)

Dec. 29, 2017; Arlington, Texas; General overall view of the 2017 Cotton Bowl logo on the back of the helmet of Southern California Trojans long snapper Jake Olson at AT&T Stadium. Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

9% ()

Chances if win out

50%

No. 11 (tie) - Oregon Ducks (5-1)

An “End racism” sticker joins the American Flag on the helmets of Oregon players Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

9% (⇔)

Chances if win out

71%

No. 9 (tie) - UCLA Bruins (6-0)

Sept. 25, 2014; Tempe, Arizona; Detailed view of UCLA Bruins helmets on the sidelines against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

11% (⇔)

Chances if win out

94%

No. 9 (tie) - Texas Longhorns (5-2)

Nov. 10, 2018; Lubbock, Texas; A Texas Longhorns helmet on the sidelines during the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium. Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

11% (⇔)

Chances if win out

70%

No. 8 - Ole Miss Rebels (7-0)

Oct. 12, 2019; Columbia, Missouri; A general view of a Mississippi Rebels helmet during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

15% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 7 - TCU Horned Frogs (6-0)

July 14, 2022; Arlington, Texas; A view of the TCU Horned Frogs helmet logo during the Big 12 Media Day at AT&T Stadium. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

21% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 6 - Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1)

July 18, 2018; Atlanta, Georgia; An Alabama Crimson Tide helmet is shown on the main stage during SEC football media day at the College Football Hall of Fame. Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

29% ()

Chances if win out

98%

No. 5 - Tennessee Volunteers (6-0)

Nov. 23, 2019; Columbia, Missouri; A general view of a Tennessee Volunteers helmet during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

37% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 4 - Michigan Wolverines (7-0)

Dec. 30, 2016; Miami Gardens, Florida; A Michigan Wolverines football helmet sits on the field prior to the game between the Florida State Seminoles and the Michigan Wolverines at Hard Rock Stadium. Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

40% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 3 - Clemson Tigers (7-0)

The Clemson football helmet near the Fiesta Bowl trophy at the coaches’ press conference in Scottsdale, Arizona Friday, Dec. 27, 2019. USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

51% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 2 - Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0)

Oct. 1, 2022; Columbus; A sticker-laden Ohio State Buckeyes helmet sits on the turf during warmups before Saturday’s game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Columbus. Barbara Perenic/Columbus Dispatch

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

58% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 1 - Georgia Bulldogs (7-0)

Dec. 12, 2020; Columbia, Missouri; A detailed view of a Georgia Bulldogs helmet during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

61% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on Twitter.

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