DALLAS — It’s been an eventful two years.
The U.S. Capitol riots, Russia’s war against Ukraine, supply chain problems, inflation and high gas prices, the end of national abortion rights, the 2021 winter storm, the Uvalde mass shooting, the redrawing of legislative boundaries, and much more, all during a pandemic.
Now it’s time for voters to have their say on elections that will choose leaders for the next two years and beyond.
Nationally, Democrats are trying to retain control of the House and Senate, a tough task in any midterm, but especially troublesome in this economy. George W. Bush in 2002 was one of only two presidents to gain seats in both houses of Congress in a midterm election. Franklin D. Roosevelt enjoyed such gains in 1934.
The national winds are expected to affect statewide and local races in Texas, where Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a third term as he faces former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso. Polls show the closest statewide race is between incumbent Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and former ACLU lawyer Rochelle Garza of Brownsville. Paxton is saddled with a 2015 indictment on securities fraud and an FBI investigation into bribery allegations.
Locally, there are critical countywide and legislative races in Dallas, Tarrant and Collin counties.
As the early voting period opens Monday, here are five things to watch for these midterm elections.
The Latino vote
Abbott has boasted that he’ll win the Texas Latino vote, particularly in South Texas, where the GOP is pushing hard to win three congressional races.
The most recent poll by The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas-Tyler shows Latino voters narrowly favoring O’Rourke over Abbott by a 41% to 37% margin. That’s not good news for the challenger. O’Rourke needs to win over Latinos by a significant margin to upend Abbott.
If Latinos favor Abbott by anywhere close to 50%, it would be disastrous for the entire Democratic statewide ticket.
Anger over the loss of national abortion rights
In some states there is evidence that the June Supreme Court decision to strike down Roe v. Wade created energy among abortion rights advocates looking to land a blow at the ballot box. But how the decision will affect Texas politics is an open question.
Unlike Kansas, where this summer voters approved abortion rights through a public referendum, Texans will have to make their disdain or approval of the decision made via votes in candidate elections, like the race for governor or attorney general.
Internal polls from Democrats and Republicans showed some energy from supporters of abortion rights in the immediate weeks after the decision. But now the rising prices of goods and services appear to be a more prominent issue for most voters.
Is there a hidden movement over abortion that pollsters are missing? We’ll see.
Joe Biden’s unpopularity in Texas
Texas Republicans are blaming President Joe Biden for the higher prices of goods, the flood of migrants at the southern border and a general feeling that they are not better off than they were two years ago.
Sitting presidents almost always take losses in midterm elections, but Democrats are hopeful that some of Biden’s legislative success, including a bipartisan infrastructure law, some criminal justice reform and an inflation reduction law that lowers some prescription drug prices will motivate base voters and some independents to soften the blow.
In Texas, Abbott has used Biden to override complaints about his record, including the inability to curb mass shootings, the winter storm and the need to provide residents with more access to health care.
Some Democrats concede that their party leaders are awful at developing clear messages to voters. That’s in contrast to Republicans, from the top of the ticket to the bottom, pounding issues including crime, border security and parental involvement in education.
County Commissioners Court races
In Dallas County, J.J. Koch is seeking reelection in a district redrawn to favor his challenger, Dallas lawyer Andrew Sommerman.
If Koch loses, Democrats will control all five seats on the Commissioners Court.
In Tarrant County, Democrats are trying to hold the seat held by Devan Allen, who is not seeking reelection. In that contest Democrat Alisa Simmons is running against Republican Andy Nguyen, who lost the seat to Allen.
If Simmons loses, Democrats will lose a seat on the court now controlled by Republicans.
The margin of victory in statewide and legislative contests
In 2018, Democrats gained 12 seats in the Texas House and some statewide Republicans, including Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, won by only single digits.
The result: The 2019 legislative session was all business as Republican leaders steered the debate around funding education and improving transportation instead of wedge issues.
But they were back for red meat in the 2021 session, approving one of the strictest abortion laws in the nation and election reform polices that critics say was designed to mollify former President Donald Trump, who still insists without proof that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him.
If Republicans lose or have to sweat out close wins in November, expect a more moderate legislative session this time around. That will occur even as Abbott, Patrick and Paxton, if they win, could be serving the final terms in those roles.
If Abbott, Patrick and lawmakers win the midterms with ease, expect another session defined by an ultraconservative agenda.
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