Every Super Bowl comes down to a few big plays, and a few key matchups. You never know what it’s going to be, but when the game is over, and it’s time for coaches and players to review what happened and why, everyone will go back to their advanced scouting reports — how they aligned their guys and how those guys played from a schematic perspective — and try to discern what went right and what went wrong.
Not that we’re professional advanced scouts at Touchdown Wire, but here are five things the San Francisco 49ers should probably pay close attention to when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs today in Super Bowl LVIII.
Get Christian McCaffrey running to the edge.
Overall, one matchup that favors the 49ers to an extreme degree is their run game against the Chiefs’ run defense. The 49ers rank fourth in the NFL with 5.3 rushing yards per attempt, while the Chiefs rank 26th, allowing 5.1 yards per carry. This tends to multiply when San Francisco runs outside, and they can get their tight ends and fullback Kyle Juszczyk going as blockers in the outside run game. The 49ers rank first in the NFL with 5.6 yards per carry outside the tackles, while the Chiefs rank 26th with 4.4 yards per carry allowed outside. Once Kyle Shanahan starts scheming up those edge blocks out of motion, and the zone run game is a heavy factor, any run defense — the Chiefs’ run defense has been an issue this season — can be had.
Take advantage of the Chiefs' exotic blitzes.
The Chiefs have blitzed on 29% of their snaps this season, and they’re generally very effective with those blitzes because defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is so good at bringing those blitzes from just about everywhere. But 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is great at getting the ball out quickly, and against the blitz this season, he has 101 completions in 150 attempts for 1,534 yards, 701 air yards, 15 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 128.6. It could be argued that there’s no better quarterback against five or more pass-rushers, and Spags will have his hands full here.
Avoid third-and-long at all costs.
The 49ers’ offense is set up with the run game as the primary focus, and Brock Purdy benefiting from that in more obvious passing situations. Bit in this game, Purdy will want to avoid third-and-long situations. That sounds obvious, of course — doesn’t every quarterback want to avoid third-and-long situations? Sure, but if you have Baker Mayfield, who had six touchdowns in third-and-7 or longer situations this season, or Jordan Love, who had the same number, maybe you’re a bit better off. This season, Purdy has completed 41 of 70 passes on third-and-long for 634 yards, 358 air yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 86.3.
Not bad per se, but the Chiefs will like to play a lot of dime defense and turn up the blitzes and disguised coverages in third-and-long, and that could backfire even on Purdy, who as we mentioned has been exceptional against the blitz.
Slow Patrick Mahomes down with late defensive movement.
Some will tell you that the 49ers have a “static” defense under Steve Wilks. That may be true with their front six; they don’t blitz a lot, though they have some cool stunt and overload concepts. But where Wilks gets interesting is in his ability to rotate his coverages — especially from two-high pre-snap to Cover-3 post-snap. The 49ers have played Cover-3 more than any other coverage (31.9% of their defensive snaps), and they’ll also morph at times from single-high to Cover-4 (which they’ve played on 26.1% of their defensive snaps).
The point is, Wilks has been better and more prolific with coverage switches than people may think, and while you won’t constantly beat Patrick Mahomes with that stuff, it will be crucial to at least slow Mahomes’ process down, forcing to take an extra beat to find the open receiver.
Prevent Isiah Pacheco from taking the game over with gap-scheme runs.
The Chiefs have changed their foundational run concepts pretty radically in the postseason. In the regular season, they ran gap as opposed to zone on 28% of their rushing attempts, which ranked 21st in the league. In their three postseason games, they’ve bumped that up to 48%. This has been a great design for second-year running back Isiah Pacheco, who has the power and acceleration to excel in gap running concepts.
This season, Pacheco has led the league in runs out of 13 personnel with 53, for 226 yards, 140 yards after contact, and a touchdown. And with gap runs, he’s had 538 yards and seven touchdowns on 100 carries. Pacheco has been hit at the line on 35% of his gap rushing attempts, but he’s been stuffed on just 15% of them.
What does that mean? It means that the 49ers can’t bring arm tackles to the party. When Pacheco is running the ball, they’ll need to commit to stopping him, and if it’s a vole run game, that could open things up for Patrick Mahomes… a construct that no defense EVER wants.
