Star power isn’t something to be taken for granted in the NBA. Especially not when it comes to the availability of that star talent and how it impacts a team’s dynamic when the player is out.
A number of players have huge, make-or-break seasons ahead of them, ones that could shift the tenor of the playoff conversation in either conference and dictate whether their roles as franchise players will continue in the near future.
With all that in mind, here’s a list of the five NBA stars whose 2023–24 campaigns will epitomize the notion of make-or-break.
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Zion Williamson
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After missing all of the 2021–22 season and the final 45 games of the ’22–23 campaign, the Pelicans star seems like perhaps the most obvious member of this group.
There’s no question whatsoever about his talent or his impact. In his last full season, he averaged 27 points, more than seven rebounds and almost four assists per game on 61.1% shooting from the field. And he had almost identical averages through 29 games last season before missing the last four months. Still, the Pelicans have an impressive roster even without Williamson, which explains how they’ve made runs at a back-end playoff spot in his absence the past two campaigns. With Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum and a young, improving supporting cast, it would be understandable if New Orleans decides it can’t wait any longer on Williamson—and seeks to deal him—if more serious injury issues crop up this season. For Williamson’s part, he’s said he can do more exercises in hopes of making his body more pliable as opposed to simply trying to shed weight.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George
This year marks the last guaranteed season in which the superstars are under contract with the Clippers, who would have to decide how they want to play things if each player chooses to opt out in search of a long-term deal worth huge money.
While both Leonard and George have the skill and talent to command that, they’ve rarely been available when it matters most, making it an incredibly risky call to put even more money down on them. That said, the Clippers are moving into a new arena in 2024–25, and it’s well known that the organization would like to have boldface names on the roster that can entice ticket sales when it takes that step. (James Harden, who desperately wants a long-term contract himself and wants to be traded from the Sixers to the Clippers, could very well be on the list, too.)
Trae Young
Coming off the 2021 Eastern Conference finals—which the Hawks surprisingly had a chance to win—it would have been an odd take to say that Young would deserve to be on a list like this.
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Between his logo-tested range, his floater, his foul drawing and obviously his vision as a passer, few offensive talents in the game can wreck an opposing team’s defensive game plan the way Young can at his best. But for all the numbers (he averaged 26.2 points and 10.2 assists last season), it’s hard to ignore the fact that he was tied with Jalen Green for the league’s least-efficient scorer among players who took 1,200 shot attempts or more. His 33.5% mark from beyond the arc last season was his worst since his rookie campaign. Similarly, his accuracy from the long midrange portion of the floor was down considerably. After connecting on 53% and 51.3% of two-pointers from 16 feet out and farther in 2020–21 and ’21–22, respectively, Young fell to just 41% this past campaign, per Basketball Reference. And that happened as his finishing numbers at the rim hit career-low marks.
For his scoring efficiency to shrink to that extent is concerning, particularly with Young being a player who doesn’t defend well or move much off the ball. And between coach Quin Snyder entering his first full year with the Hawks, plus fellow point guard Dejounte Murray having just signed an extension, Young’s situation is certainly worth watching this season.
Ben Simmons
After missing the entire 2021–22 season with the Sixers and then the Nets, Simmons watched his situation with Brooklyn change abruptly when the club dealt away Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. By the time the Nets did that, though, it was clear the organization didn’t have a bona fide Big Three anymore.
Simmons had some stretches—namely one in November—when he was more aggressive, and he showed he can still be an impact defender who clamps down. But for the most part, particularly toward the end of his season, Simmons often refused to shoot, passing up obvious shot attempts to look for yet another pass. He took two, seven, three, two and two attempts in his final five games of the campaign, failing to score in double figures in any of them. Then, by mid-February, his season was over, though that wouldn’t definitively be known until late March, when the team ruled him out with nerve issues in his back.
Simmons’s trade value has obviously dipped a considerable amount. But if he can stay healthy and play with the more aggressive mentality he showcases at times, perhaps he’ll do better with the Nets now that there’s less pressure—and drama, frankly—from day to day, with Brooklyn not being a title contender anymore. If not, the way we talk about Simmons’s potential impact will likely change for the foreseeable future.
