Once you get roughly one month into the NFL season, that’s when teams start to show you who they are, and when you can begin to see the separation between the good and bad.
This also is a good starting point to begin the conversation around what coaches will get their walking papers, and how soon they are sent packing. Five weeks into the NFL season, these five coaches whose seats should be on fire.
5. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
Sure, let’s get wacky right off the bat. But is it really sacrilege to say that Belichick may have stuck around a little too long? Right now, the Patriots are That ’70s Show after Topher Grace left the show. You can’t just shuffle Seth Meyers’ brother in the lead role and expect the same results. Sure, Red Foreman (Belichick) is still there, so some of the well-established charm and trust remains, but look at the Patriots since Tom Brady left- they have more losing seasons than playoff appearances.
Right now their very bland, very boring offense is 28th in EPA per play, and Belichick was just on the receiving end of the largest loss of his career against the Cowboys- a game in which he benched Mac Jones for Bailey Zappe. They seemingly have no quarterback of the future and no exciting offensive weapons.
Will Robert Kraft fire Belichick? Almost certainly not. Should he move on and start anew rather than tread quicksand until Bill decides he’s done? Yes.
4, Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers
“How could you fire a coach who has never had a losing season?!”
I can assure you, Steelers fans do not care about that. Not anymore, at least, because where has winning nine games a year gotten them? Mike Tomlin has as many playoff wins as you and I since 2016, and it seems as if even his biggest defenders are starting to realize he can’t get out of his own way.
He very well could have gone out and hired Eric Bieniemy as his offensive coordinator and promoted Brian Flores to be his defensive coordinator. Instead, he inexcusably kept Matt Canada and Teryl Austin. Pittsburgh’s offense has scored less than 10 points in two of their four games thus far, and they rank in the bottom five in the league in EPA, Success rate, dropback success rate, rush EPA, and rush success rate.
The Steelers cannot continue to die on the sword of stubbornness and mediocrity. Stability is a great thing, but it also implies success- the Steelers haven’t had any true success in nearly a decade. This is Andy Reid at the end of his tenure in Philadelphia. We can acknowledge Tomlin is a fantastic coach, while simultaneously point out that things aren’t working and a change is needed.
3. Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders
This one feels like a sure thing. It won’t be during the season (at least I don’t foresee that happening), but the Raiders did the most Raiders thing possible and messed up another head coaching hire. McDaniels is 7-14 as the head coach in Vegas, and it’s more of what we saw in his first go ’round as head coach in Denver. He’s a control freak with the offense, and he scapegoated Derek Carr when things went south in 2022. They are currently 21st in EPA per play and the Raiders are 1-3 staring at another wasted season.
2, Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears
One win doesn’t solve everything in Chicago. If this leads to a monumental turnaround, then great. However, I don’t see the Bears turning into the 2007 Patriots all of a sudden. This is a very flawed team with a defense that lacks any sort of pass rush whatsover, and they didn’t address it in the offseason outside of bringing in Yannick Ngakoue. Justin Fields is showing the talent is there- he has eight touchdown passes over his last two games. What the Bears need to do is, unfortunately, clean house again. Get Eberflus and Luke Getsy far, far away from Fields and bring in someone who understands how NFL offenses work. Cough, cough, Ben Johnson, cough cough.
1. Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
Ron Rivera deserves a lot of credit for who he is as a man, and how he made it his mission to change the culture in Washington. However, there is no reason for him to be a head coach in the NFL. He has never had consecutive winning seasons, and Washington, once again, is floundering when they should be winning more games with that talented defense and a really respectable collection of offensive talent. Promoting Eric Bieniemy to head coach is the easy transition to point to as a succession plan, and it’s what the Commanders should do. Maybe not right this second, but before the 2024 season for certain.
