Today marks five months since Sir Keir Starmer became Prime Minister, giving his first address at Downing Street on July 5.
By no coincidence, it is also the day that Sir Keir announced his “plan for change” in a speech this morning; setting targets on the economy, NHS, public safety, energy security, and social mobility to enact before the next general election.
Sir Keir’s first five months in power, after a 14-year Labour hiatus, have been marked with challenges.
Just weeks into his time as prime minister, race riots erupted across the UK following the Southport stabbings, with more than 1,000 arrests and 300 sentences in the aftermath.
Sir Keir’s chief of staff, Sue Gray, resigned amid controversy over her £170,000 salary, and the prime minister himself has faced scrutiny over gifted tickets, clothes, and accommodation.
More recently, an estimated 10,000 people descended on Westminster to protest the decision to introduce inheritance tax to include some farm estates.
But what do the numbers show on the first five months of a Labour government; and from Bills to tax rises, how does Sir Keir compare to his predecessors?
Tax rises
After inheriting a £22bn “black hole” from the Tories, the Labour government revealed an effective £40bn increase in taxes in its hotly anticipated Autumn Statement.
The lion’s share of these tax rises - £25bn - will fall on employers in the form of increased national insurance contributions.
Other tax hikes included increases to capital gains tax, abolition of non-dom status, and the controversial decision to expand inheritance tax to pensions and farms.
While it is difficult to compare the exact monetary value of tax rises or cuts over the years, the Institute for Financial Studies (IFS) has found that Labour’s proposals will represent the highest relative tax increases in 30 years.
IFS calculations show that the Autumn Statement introduces a tax change of +1.21 per cent, as a proportion of national income.
The last time a tax change was this high was in John Major’s 1993 budget; though the recent Tory government is close behind.
During his time as chancellor in 2021, Rishi Sunak delivered a budget which contained tax rises of +1.05 per cent, which at the time was the biggest hike of the 21st Century, according to IFS estimates.
This included an income tax freeze which placed the tax burden on workers, dragged 1.3 million people into paying taxes for the first time, and froze the higher tax bracket of 40% on any earnings over £50,270.
As a result, workers have been “stuck” in higher tax bands despite wages growing rapidly in the past few years; the current untaxed personal allowance has remained at just £12,570 since 2022.
The current Labour government has decided not to extend the Conservatives’ income tax freezes, which means that salary thresholds for different levels of taxation will be adjusted from 2028-29.
Starmer’s satisfaction has tumbled downwards
Since Keir Starmer was elected prime minister in July, the public has become less and less satisfied with his performance.
According to polls from More in Common, Sir Keir’s approval has dropped by 35 points in just five months; from +5 per cent on election day, to -30 per cent in late November.
The most dramatic fall came between late July and late August (a drop of ~25 per cent), although Parliament was not in session during this period.
But Sir Keir is far from alone in his unpopular turn. Over the last 15 years, all prime ministers have suffered an unpleasant honeymoon period, though some worse than others.
According to separate polling archives from Ipsos, when asked how satisfied they were with the prime minister at the time, the public has tended to become gradually more unhappy as time goes on.
Theresa May, who was appointed prime minister in July 2016, was the most successful in retaining her popularity five months in, at +15 per cent satisfaction.
Meanwhile, Liz Truss, who did not make it to the five-month mark, saw satisfaction plummet from -2 to -51 per cent between September and October alone.
Both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, neither of whom were elected at the time, started with an already negative satisfaction rating.
By the time Johnson faced election in December 2019, satisfaction had dropped to -20.
Though public dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer is not a record low, it is a significantly high drop in such a short period of time, and higher than most other prime ministers on record.
Inflation remains stable
After a high period of inflation, the consumer price index (CPI) has been generally decreasing since its peak in November 2022.
While CPI was at 2 per cent in June this year, it jumped by 0.2 per cent in July, the month of the general election.
Inflation went down significantly to 1.7 per cent in September, a record low in over three years (since April 2021).
However, inflation rose again in October, with latest CPI figure at 2.3 per cent.
In the context of extremely volatile inflation in the past few years, the first few months of a Keir Starmer leadership have been relatively stable.
Government bills
It can be hard to measure the productivity of a government — particularly one which was elected just before Parliament’s summer recess.
The House of Commons was out of action between 31 July and 1 September. Nonetheless, the first five months of this Labour government have been a busy period.
Since the 5th of July, when Sir Keir became prime minister, the Government has introduced 26 bills into parliament. Two more bills were carried over, according to analysis from Parallel Parliament.
Three bills have been enacted into law so far; the Budget Responsibility Act, Passenger Railway Services Act, and Supply and Appropriation Act.
This does not include the dozens private members bills which have been introduced in this period, by MPs and Lords, such as the controversial Assisted Dying Bill which passed last week.
By comparison, predecessor Rishi Sunak’s government introduced just 14 bills in his first five months as prime minister.
When Boris Johnson became an unelected prime minister in July 2019, his government also introduced just 14 bills in the first five months.
However, once Mr Johnson was then elected in December of that year, his government introduced 29 bills in the same time period.
Tackling immigration
After latest immigration figures were released, Sir Keir criticised the Tory government’s failure to get immigration in check, accusing his predecessors of running an “open borders experiment”.
The Labour government have not yet committed to any specific immigration targets themselves.
However, fresh data revealed deportations soared in the first three months of Starmer’s government (July 1st to September 30th 2024).
In the third quarter of this year, both enforced and voluntary deportations were higher than any other period in the last five years.
In particular, an unprecedented number of Brazilian migrants were deported under the first few months of Sir Keir’s prime ministership (1,473).
According to a freedom of information request in the Observer, more than 600 of these deportations were spread over three chartered Home Office flights this summer — the largest in history.
There were 2,061 enforced returns between July and September this year alone, a 29 per cent increase year-on-year and a 12 per cent increase from the previous quarter.
There were also 6,247 voluntary returns in the same period. This allows illegal migrants, asylum seekers, or people who overstayed their visas to get support to leave the UK voluntarily.
Migrants can be incentivised to leave voluntarily with up to £3,000 in financial support, and cost of airfare. For this reason, the use of voluntary returns has been on the rise in recent years, with enforced returns costing upwards of £15,000 per person.
The first quarter under Labour leadership may show that Sir Keir is serious about tackling illegal immigration.
