The stage is set for the national championship in New Orleans, in a matchup that six weeks ago would have sounded more like a second-round NCAA tournament game than one for all the marbles. North Carolina’s meteoric rise from disappointment to potential champion has been remarkable, cemented by winning a game for the ages Saturday over archrival Duke. On the other side is Kansas, a team whose veteran experience has helped it rise from recent March disappointments to the precipice of a national title.
What will decide this epic clash of two of the sport’s biggest brands? Here are the five matchups that will determine who cuts down the nets Monday night.
Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports (Black); Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports (Agbaji)
Leaky Black vs. Ochai Agbaji
One can only assume North Carolina will match up its best perimeter defender in Black against one of the sport’s best wing scorers in Agbaji. The Jayhawks star didn’t force anything in the Final Four matchup with Villanova, but he found ways to get loose for open looks from deep and knocked down six of his seven three attempts in the game. Meanwhile, Black did a tremendous job chasing another elite shooter in Duke’s AJ Griffin on Saturday night, limiting him to just 1-7 from the field. He may not be a very potent offensive weapon, but Black’s defense is what makes him an indispensable piece for this Tar Heel team. If he can take Agbaji out of the game the way he did Griffin, it’s advantage Tar Heels.
The Battle on the Offensive Boards
A huge reason North Carolina upset Duke and advanced to Monday night was the work the Heels (and particularly Armando Bacot) did on the offensive glass. The Heels corralled 17 offensive rebounds that led to 22 second-chance points. Bacot had eight of those offensive boards, but Black also snatched six huge ones (often in loose ball situations) to add extra possessions.
On the other side is David McCormack, who almost single-handedly makes KU one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. McCormack is fourth in the country in offensive rebounding rate per KenPom, snatching an impressive 17.3% of his team’s misses when on the floor. In fact, it was McCormack’s offensive rebound and finish when Villanova had cut Kansas’s lead to six that was the defining play of the game. But UNC is the nation’s second-best defensive rebounding team, which may make it hard for Kansas to manufacture second-chance opportunities.
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Caleb Love vs. Dajuan Harris
Love etched his name into college hoops lore forever Saturday night with his explosive second half against Duke. The sophomore scored 22 of his 28 points in the second half, including the game-deciding three with under 30 seconds to play. It was the second game this tournament that Love has willed his team to victory after a second-half outburst against UCLA in the Sweet 16. He may have his frustrating moments, but when he’s on there may not be a more explosive scorer in the sport.
Love could draw multiple different assignments, but I anticipate Bill Self assigning Harris to Love for much of the game. Harris is smaller than Love, but he has great hands and tremendous instincts. The clearest way for Kansas to lose this game is for the Jayhawks to allow Love to go on one of his hot scoring streaks in this game. KU needs to disrupt his rhythm.
Smaller Lineups vs. Brady Manek
One way Self could create matchup advantages against this UNC starting five is to play both Harris and Remy Martin together in a four-guard look that also features Christian Braun and Ochai Agbaji. It might be a risk on the glass (as discussed earlier), but the impact would be forcing UNC PF Manek to guard on the perimeter.
The Heels would likely counter by matching up Manek with Harris, who isn’t much of a threat offensively. Still, the shifty PG’s speed off the bounce would cause major problems for the slower-footed Manek. One option would be to sag far off Harris on the offensive end and essentially dare him to make open threes, but Harris made three triples in the game against Villanova when Jay Wright deployed a similar strategy. It’s a fascinating trade-off to consider.
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Bill Self vs. Hubert Davis
Self raved Sunday about the job Davis has done with this North Carolina team down the stretch, remarking on the Tar Heels’ transition from bubble team to potential champions in just six weeks. But it’s still Davis’s first rodeo in spots like this as a head coach, and Self has been on this stage in moments like these frequently throughout his nearly 30 years as a head coach. Self has the added luxury of coaching a team with more experience than UNC’s–Agbaji and McCormack are seniors, Braun and Jalen Wilson juniors and bench players like Martin, Mitch Lightfoot and Jalen Coleman-Lands all in their fifth year or later. The Tar Heels’ backcourt in particular is younger and playing in its first NCAA tournament. Can Davis cement his legacy as a Carolina coaching great by beating one of the best coaches in the sport to win a national championship?
