Sports Illustrated's John Garcia Jr. selects one question posed to him through social media (@JohnGarcia_Jr and @SIAllAmerican) each week to delve into the college football recruiting topics fans want to know most about.
During the spring months, as most in the recruiting industry truly turn the page to the following class, I'm often asked when it is the right time to panic relative to a given program's slow start to securing verbal commitments. The answer is always in the realm of, "Let's see where they're at closer to the college football season."
Between spring football, spring official visits, college camps and July's long dead period, many prospects want to make their college decisions in June and July, and the class of 2023 has been no different. Almost every Power Five program has or is close to double-digit verbal commitments on board to date.
While volume for the sake of volume doesn't define a recruiting class, a run of several commitments like the one Miami, Texas, Florida, and LSU are on right now does create momentum and build up perception around the program during the offseason. Marquee recruiting wins against a rival or even on a national scale carry similar weight, just as filling positional needs early in the class or grabbing that top-flight quarterback recruit should.
However, several marquee programs have not been able to capitalize on any of those markers. From last cycle's national champs to a pair of SEC West programs and a Big Ten team fresh off of making the College Football Playoff, there are many head-scratchers when comparing summer recruiting classes nationally—even this early.
For today's mailbag, we'll focus on perhaps the five most disappointing runs to date in the class of 2023 relative to expectation. That last part is key, especially since SI's top 25 class rankings have yet to be released in full.
Extenuating circumstances, like Arizona State is dealing with trying to recruit while there is uncertainty at every level of the program from conference to coaching staff and potential NCAA punishment, won't be on this list. Instead, the focus is on programs that should be more tangibly successful at this stage of the game, the time of year when the majority of P5 prospects look to come off the board.
(Programs are listed alphabetically.)
Auburn
Many in the industry point to the state of Alabama as one of the sneaky talent-producing states nationally in football. Those locals will stand on the table for an uptick in talent for the class of 2023 in the Yellowhammer State, particularly along the defensive line. It means the expectation under Bryan Harsin was one on a path to recruiting success—something that has yet to materialize.
Not only did the top quarterback in the state, Chris Vizzina, elect to play elsewhere (Clemson) even without Alabama in the mix, but No. 2 option Brock Glenn now looks like an uphill battle despite an early lead and his legacy status. Back in the home state, local talent has escaped the Tigers in the trenches including Keldric Faulk (Florida State) and Tomarrion Parker (Penn State) just in the last three weeks. The top offensive line recruits in the state are likely to look away from the Plains as well.
Beyond the intricacies, not to mention surging programs all around the Tigers in the SEC, the optics of the class are a tough sell. AU has just four verbal commitments to date, the lowest number in the conference. Half of the group, for glass-half-full types, has jumped on board this month and both running back Jeremiah Cobb and wide receiver Karmello English are semi-local to campus. Big Cat Weekend, the program's marquee July recruiting event, could not come at a better time.
Florida State
This isn't piling on after Chris Parson de-committed from Florida State this week, though the Elite 11 finalist will have a variety of options to consider moving forward. This placement for Mike Norvell's program starts with optics, especially compared to the two programs under new management that FSU considers rivals. Miami has the nation's attention on the trail at the moment and Florida has picked up steam on its own end, adding seven pledges since June began that includes flipping Penn State quarterback commitment Marcus Stokes.
The program has been overlooked among in-state elites, something that just can't happen in the Sunshine State regardless of what the rivals are doing on the trail. Two of its four public de-commitments come from within state lines and two of the current pledges on board from the state picked the program back in 2021, when the needle isn't moved the same way as their decisions would during this time of year.
There is a silver lining with the class, though, and a splash of momentum later this summer seems possible. FSU could spoil Auburn's run at Glenn, a Tiger legacy recruit, in what would be a strong and swift counter move to losing Parson on the commitment list. Even if it doesn't, the Seminoles actually boast a strong trench class thus far, led by headliner and Sweden native Lucas Simmons picking the program over a national offer sheet on Monday. Beating Auburn for Faulk was also a strong perceptional pull up front.
Michigan
After the CFP run on the field last fall, pairing with a top 10 class when the 2022 rankings were settled, few expected a recruiting drop-off into 2023—but that's where UM is at under Jim Harbaugh. A pair of front-seven gets this week has softened the blow, at least some, but otherwise the class lacks a national headliner and is still searching for the next quarterback recruit to jump in.
Timing is key with this knock on Michigan's class, especially with top prospect in the state and priority quarterback target Dante Moore picking Oregon on Friday. Last year's No. 10 recruiting finish now seems like a pipe dream to replicate. Volume isn't the issue for this group, however, sitting at 11 pledges as of Thursday morning. More undeclared targets like defensive back Makari Vickers and defensive lineman John Walker are set to soon come off the board in what could start pushing this perception the other way if the maize and blue hats get grabbed over SEC competition.
Ole Miss
Not only are the numbers low at five commits, as some of the state's best (Dante Dowdell to Oregon, John Slaughter to Tennessee) pledged to other programs already, but the top athlete among current commitments could have a change of heart. Suntarine Perkins, an in-state two-way talent with projections to play linebacker or rush the passer in college, has been public about his flirtations with Alabama despite having been committed to Lane Kiffin and company since 2021. Mississippi State has also hosted Perkins on multiple visits.
Ole Miss swung big at quarterback but ultimately fell flat in the pursuit of Arch Manning, Vizzina and Jaden Rashada, though it countered with a nice long-term addition in Tennessee native Marcel Reed. Offensive line and wide receiver recruiting look like the best possibility for the Rebels to build strong positional groupings before all is said and done, but a top-25 group like last cycle could be far-fetched. Of course, Kiffin is the self-proclaimed transfer portal king, so perhaps a shift of strategy to that element of recruiting is already in motion.
Texas A&M
Optically, two can't-miss offseason events have led to a rare quiet spell from Jimbo Fisher's program on the recruiting trail. It can be summed up by a pair of surnames, Saban and Manning (this is where Aggie fans tune out of the story and/or Twitter search the author to respond). Nick Saban of course spatted publicly with Fisher over A&M's boosted recruiting profile, and NIL's role within it. Manning, as in Arch, committed to in-state rival Texas and that program has been on a recruiting roll since, adding 10 prospects since Manning made his move.
No disrespect to Tyler White, but a punter pledge shouldn't be among the first few prospects discussed by the reigning recruiting national champions. When there are only five recruits on board, as a whole, there isn't much choice for deeper dives. Of course the state of Texas is loaded with droves of top targets like defensive lineman David Hicks and linebacker Anthony Hill ahead of final decisions, but expecting a repeat title on the trail seems like a click-bait bold prediction piece for the dead of summer at this point.
A&M is still on the hunt for a quarterback to replace Eli Holstein—who has since committed to Saban and 'Bama—among other needs in the class. Beyond finding the future face of the program, there is potential for national wins later in the cycle to change this perception in short order. USC commitment and electric receiver recruit Zachariah Branch recently took an official visit to College Station and a flip-win there could kick-start the national appeal of the class.
SI's initial recruiting class team rankings are set to debut in August.
Have a recruiting question? Connect with @SIAllAmerican and/or @JohnGarcia_Jr to submit yours and it could be featured on the next mailbag.
