Every team in the first round of the NBA playoffs has played two games, and starting Thursday, every series will switch locales as Game 3s get underway. With the playoff hoops already feeling hot and heavy, here are five big questions to keep an eye on as the postseason continues.
Will the Clippers stop the drop?
All the fears opponents had about the Suns’ midrange prowess came true for Los Angeles in its Game 2 loss to Phoenix. The Suns shot 29—29!!!!!!—midrange jumpers against the Clips in Game 2. For reference, the Bulls led the league in such shot attempts at 17.8 during the regular season. And the Nets—thanks in large part to Kevin Durant—led the league in efficiency on middies, converting at a 48.9% rate. Phoenix shot 21-of-29 from midrange Tuesday, a robust, comical, knee-slapping 72.4% on what is allegedly the least efficient shot in the game.
Of course, it helps to have Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Durant as the players largely taking those shots. Those three combined to shoot 17-of-25 on midrangers, with Deandre Ayton hitting all four of his attempts for good measure.
A big part of the problem? The Clippers’ conservative drop coverage. The Suns had a 137.3 offensive rating in the nearly 30 minutes Ivica Zubac played in Game 2. Phoenix’s perimeter players took great advantage of the space he provided on defense, as did Ayton.
The Clips have had success going small in the past, and you have to wonder whether Ty Lue will play that card again in Game 3. In Tuesday’s loss, L.A. played only five minutes without a traditional center on the court. Neither Robert Covington nor Marcus Morris Sr. saw playing time. Both have been cut out of the rotation for a while, but they do give Lue a little more positional flexibility, toughness and playoff experience. There’s certainly no easy fix for the Suns’ offense. Switching everything creates its own issues. The drop doesn’t seem sustainable, though.
Will the Warriors unleash Steph in the pick-and-roll?
Stephen Curry, at least during the regular season, is never going to be a Chris Paul– or Trae Young–style point guard who runs a relentless number of pick-and-rolls. In the playoffs, there’s generally an uptick. Yet the Warriors never seem keen on spamming that action until they are very desperate. Well, they would seem to qualify for desperation down 0–2 to the upstart Kings with Draymond Green out for Game 3.
In the regular season, Curry ran pick-and-rolls on 30.4% of his possessions, per NBA.com. In Round 1, that’s increased to 39.3%. To compare, Paul is at 56%. Donovan Mitchell is at 46%. Curry is devastating when he runs pick-and-rolls. Of course, he’s valuable in so many ways that it’s understandable why Steve Kerr also constantly runs him off the ball. And Thursday, Curry won’t have his favored roll man in Green.
Still, this seems like a good way for the Warriors to juice their offense. The Kings have been well prepared for Golden State’s off-ball motion. At some point, Curry needs to be aggressive in attacking Domantas Sabonis and forcing him to guard screen after screen. A lineup of Curry, Gary Payton II, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney is one I’d look out for in Game 3. It should have enough defense and, more important, enough spacing to let Curry cook as a ballhandler. The Warriors can’t afford to get cute.
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Can the Kings keep up the pace?
A huge key to Sacramento’s success in this series has been the team’s commitment to pushing the ball up the floor. Golden State generally likes to play fast—the Dubs led the NBA in pace this season—but the Kings are forcing them to go even quicker. So far, the series has been played at a rate of 104.25 possessions a game. That’s faster than any team in the regular season and would be the fastest of any team over the past three postseasons.
The Kings are going fast no matter what. To me, one of the most impressive plays of the series came late in Game 2. The Kings were up 104–101 with just over two minutes to go. Curry missed a possibly game-tying three. De’Aaron Fox got the rebound and quickly found Malik Monk dashing up the left wing. Monk could have slowed the ball down so the offense could bleed clock and run a play. Instead, Sacramento chose chaos. Monk initiated a transition opportunity. And after the Kings collapsed the paint in the ensuing scramble, the ball eventually found its way back to Fox at the top of the key, and he hit a massive three that left his hands with still 14 seconds left on the shot clock.
Sacramento has found something by speeding up the game. As much as it may go against the Warriors’ ethos, Golden State may need to find a way to junk things up a bit.
Will Karl-Anthony Towns show up?
Through two games against the Nuggets, Karl-Anthony Towns has 21 points total. He has nine turnovers and only eight made field goals. He’s shooting 3-of-12 from three. And he’s racked up seven fouls. It’s been a dispiriting performance from Towns, who looks out of sorts on both ends of the floor. He keeps getting burned defending pick-and-rolls, particularly when he’s matched up with Aaron Gordon, and Gordon slips screens for easy dunks, something that happened multiple times in Game 2. Offensively, he‘s settling for too many threes, even given Denver’s relative lack of size.
The Timberwolves were not expected to win this series. But outside of one quarter in Game 2, they have looked completely overmatched. And that’s with Anthony Edwards going nuclear Wednesday and Rudy Gobert actually competing well for stretches. Towns has by far been the most disappointing player in the series. If Minnesota is going to have any chance, he has to step up. It’s not easy with Gobert on the floor, but if I’m the T-Wolves, I try to find Towns some touches on the block early in Game 3 and see whether he can get a rhythm on closer looks.
Will Caris LeVert start for the Cavs?
Cleveland had a big problem in Game 1 finding space for its offense. The Cavs couldn’t find a fifth option next to Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, and with the bench playing poorly, the Knicks choked them out en route to a victory.
Cleveland came alive in Game 2. Isaac Okoro was ditched after an early ineffective stretch, and J.B. Bickerstaff retooled his rotation, bumping up minutes for Caris LeVert and inserting Danny Green. Moving forward, LeVert is the one to keep an eye on.
In Game 1, LeVert played only nine minutes alongside Mitchell and Garland. In Game 2, he played 22 minutes with them, and in that time, Cleveland outscored New York by 32 points and shot 58.8% from three. While LeVert is less trusted on defense than Okoro or Cedi Osman, he works wonders for the Cavs’ spacing. Cleveland is already playing in tight quarters with Allen and Mobley on the floor. The Knicks will ignore Okoro and, to an extent, Osman as well. LeVert commands much more respect on the perimeter. If the Knicks cheat off him, he’s a much more significant threat to score. If they stick too close to him, it opens up more opportunities for Garland and Mitchell.
Cleveland was great during the regular season when LeVert played alongside the core four. While the Cavs also had success with Okoro in that spot, the playoffs are a different animal. For now, the offense/defense trade-off with LeVert may be worth it, especially considering how much easier he makes life for Cleveland’s star backcourt.
