The NBA’s conference finals are set, with the Lakers, Nuggets, Celtics and Heat all reaching the final four with varying degrees of surprise. Here are five big questions that will determine the outcomes of the two series, and who will reach the NBA Finals.
1. Who will make the other work more: Nikola Jokić or Anthony Davis?
A great deal of the Lakers-Nuggets matchup will come down to Jokić vs. Davis. The Joker dismantled Phoenix’s single coverage in Round 2, averaging nearly 35 points a night as the Suns were reluctant to double him. Los Angeles will also likely start with Davis and see whether he can defend without serious help, allowing the Lakers to stay close to Denver’s shooters. Davis will also have opportunities to attack Jokić offensively, as his athleticism advantage will be key in the half court.
A significant factor in this series will be how each of these guys performs in the fourth quarter. Jokić is the Nuggets’ offense. The Lakers are at their best when Davis is dominating defensively. Can each center stay out of foul trouble? Will the intensity of their one-on-one battles sap them of the energy needed from them elsewhere? Not only will both Jokić and Davis be tasked with stopping each other, but both are going to be defending pick-and-rolls all night. The Nuggets will not hold back from putting Davis in action the way the Warriors did at times, particularly with the effectiveness of the Jamal Murray–Jokić two-man game. Jokić is used to being called up into screens, but he hasn’t had to guard his own yard like he will have to against AD. These two players will be putting a lot of pressure on each other every night. Whoever gains the upper hand in each game will go a long way in putting their team in a position to win.
2. Will Miami start Kevin Love?
Since their third game of the playoffs, the Heat have settled on a starting lineup of Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love and Bam Adebayo. Love hasn’t played huge minutes nightly but has been a solid part of the starting five, giving the Heat rebounding, shooting and his trademark outlet passing. But the Celtics present an interesting dilemma. They have much more wing depth than either New York or Milwaukee. And Boston presents fewer places for Miami to cheat off defensively. Love is going to have to defend in space much more often than he did in the previous two rounds. If Boston continues to start big with Robert Williams III, Love would have to guard him or Al Horford. Because Miami hedges on screens with Love, that’s going to create a lot of four-on-three opportunities for Boston, which could collapse the Heat’s defense and lead to a barrage of threes. It also means Strus would likely have to guard Marcus Smart, which could be a trickier matchup for him than trying to stash him on one of the bigs.
I would be surprised if Caleb Martin didn’t enter Miami’s starting unit at some point. He can guard one of Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, which would settle down matchups everywhere else for the Heat. And Love could still play some backup center, giving the Heat a different look compared to Cody Zeller off the bench. If Boston goes back to its smaller starting lineup with Smart, Tatum, Brown, Horford and Derrick White, I don’t see Love staying on the floor against that group for very long if at all.
3. Will LeBron go hunting?
We have seen a very different version of LeBron James during this postseason. His number of possessions as a ballhandler in pick-and-rolls and in isolation has decreased significantly since the Lakers’ title run in 2020. At the height of his playoff powers, James was a one-man half-court offense. He would pick on the other team’s weakest defender relentlessly, calling them into screens and placing more and more tension on opposing defenses. In ’23, James has been content to let others cook. We’ve seen some work in the post, but James is also doing a lot of his work off the ball. At 38 years old and playing on a bad foot, it makes sense LeBron is not trying to single-handedly will buckets on every possession but does up the degree of difficulty for the Lakers’ offense.
Los Angeles’s 111.6 offensive rating in the playoffs is not very good. That would have been ranked 26th in the regular season, barely ahead of the Magic. This team wins on defense. That creates a fascinating stylistic battle with the Nuggets, who cannot stop scoring. Even if the Lakers slow them down, they will need more consistent offensive production than they did against Memphis and Golden State.
Is this the series we see James try to hunt mismatches more often? Aaron Gordon is going to play great individual defense. LeBron is probably going to have chances to call up Murray or Michael Porter Jr. instead. We haven’t seen Denver’s defenders put on an island too much yet, either. A vintage James performance could not only juice some half-court possessions for the Lakers, it could also slow the game down and limit time for the Nuggets’ offense.
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4. How is Jimmy Butler’s ankle?
If Miami is going to have a chance against a deeper Boston team, it needs the maximum version of Playoff Jimmy. Butler’s numbers were solid against the Knicks, but the production did not exactly match his supernova Round 1 performance vs. Milwaukee. After spraining his ankle in Game 1 vs. New York, Butler missed a game and looked slightly limited moving forward. His efficiency dipped quite a bit, and in the face of more double teams, Butler turned into more of a playmaker.
Boston doesn’t double much, and it didn’t trap Butler often during last year’s conference finals, even during his big scoring nights. The Heat need Jimmy to find a matchup he likes and turn back into a scorer. Miami’s shooting is too unreliable for Butler to play facilitator. If he isn’t playing at his Round 1 level, it’s hard to see how the Heat score enough to win.
After an out-of-body Round 1 offensive experience against Milwaukee, Miami’s attack slowed considerably against the Knicks. You could say it’s adaptability, or the Heat starting to come back down to Earth. Miami desperately needs it to be the former. Because the offense the Heat displayed their past four games vs. New York—when Butler returned from injury—won’t cut it against the Celtics.
5. How important is the “Bubble rematch” aspect of these series?
Miami has only three players from the Bubble series (Butler, Adebayo, Duncan Robinson) still in its rotation. Tyler Herro is injured. Robinson is playing, but he didn’t really during last year’s conference finals. Enes Freedom—then Enes Kanter—played more minutes in the last Bubble meeting between Boston and Miami than Williams did. So did Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker and Daniel Theis.
The only holdovers from the 2020 Lakers are James and Davis. Los Angeles is basically a new team from when Denver last saw them this regular season. The Nuggets have only three players who saw minutes in the Bubble. And Porter was playing nowhere near as much then.
It’s a fun quirk to see the Bubble final four back in action, but it doesn’t prove much. (Also, where was this story line when Boston and Miami played last year?) These teams are back because they have star talent. But lending any significance to the Bubble story line would be a waste of time as it relates to where these four rosters are now.
