The NBA finally resumes Thursday after days of infighting between former players turned podca—I mean, the All-Star break. Only a little bit more than a quarter of the season remains. As we head into the homestretch before the playoffs, here are the big questions worth keeping in mind as the action unfolds.
Can the Los Angeles Lakers or Golden State Warriors make a run?
The NBA postseason is almost always a veteran’s game, and experience becomes a cherished resource. Few teams boast as much of both as the Lakers and Warriors. While they’ve each underwhelmed for much of the season, it’s difficult to write off teams led by LeBron James and Stephen Curry.
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Both squads entered the break on a bit of a run after some lineup changes. Los Angeles has won six of seven. Meanwhile, Golden State has won … also six of seven! Are those midseason blips or a sign of what’s to come? Remember, the Lakers never really coalesced until after the deadline last year, though roster moves obviously played a role. Meanwhile, the Dubs have looked different since starting Draymond Green at center full time, and now even Klay Thompson is moving to the bench.
A sustained run of excellence from either of those teams, and the race to come out of the West becomes much more interesting.
Which is the second-best team in the East?
The Boston Celtics are the clear-cut favorite in the East, and possibly the league. They’ve led the NBA in net rating for practically the entire season. The gap between first-place Boston and the second-place Oklahoma City Thunder in net efficiency is bigger than the gap between OKC and the eighth-place New Orleans Pelicans. So can anyone threaten the Celts come playoff time?
The Cleveland Cavaliers are probably sick of the doubt. They are fourth in both net rating and wins in the league overall despite injuries that kept Darius Garland and Evan Mobley out for long stretches. The New York Knicks are generating hype after a series of shrewd moves beginning with the O.G. Anunoby trade. The Philadelphia 76ers have to be taken seriously if Joel Embiid recovers from his knee injury. And of course, the Milwaukee Bucks loom even as Doc Rivers is meme’d into oblivion.
Ultimately, Boston is a heavy favorite but not unbeatable. A conference finals appearance is there for the taking for pretty much any of the other teams in the next tier down.
Related: NBA Power Rankings: Bucks Are Most Intriguing Story After All-Star Break
Are the Oklahoma City Thunder or Minnesota Timberwolves ready?
Both the Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves have been at the top of the West standings for much of the season. Both feature deep, talented rosters led by young stars. And on paper, both have the profiles of legitimate title contenders. The only question here is if either team is ready for the burden of expectations. Neither squad has the collective playoff experience that is typically considered a prerequisite for championship success.
Minnesota has been bounced in the first round the last two years. OKC hasn’t made the postseason with its current core. Of the two, I definitely like the Wolves’ chances more at actually making the NBA Finals. If the two young squads end up meeting in the third round, though, you could consider the guard definitively changed in the West.
Whose season will end in massive disappointment?
In between the contenders, the happy-to-be-there franchises and the tankers are the teams who entered this season with high hopes that are in interesting positions. Last season, the Sacramento Kings finished third in the West. The Dallas Mavericks missed the playoffs after acquiring Kyrie Irving. The Miami Heat made the Finals. This season, all are currently in the play-in bracket and in danger of missing the postseason entirely, or entering the first round as massive underdogs.
Though it may have worked for the Heat in 2023, this is not really a scenario any of those teams would have welcomed before the season. The Kings are supposed to be on the upswing, not looking up at other young rosters. The Mavs have an MVP candidate and one of the top-five players in the world. The Heat have made the Finals twice in four seasons with an aging star. If any or all of these teams end up taking a significant step back from a year ago, it could be a precursor to major moves in the offseason.
Are the Los Angeles Clippers the best team in their conference? Or are the Denver Nuggets simply coasting?
Speaking of the West, is there a non-injury reason not to believe in the Clippers? James Harden is thriving, Russell Westbrook has bought into his bench role and Kawhi Leonard is playing at an MVP level. Yes, it’s fair to say this team has bigger injury concerns than most, but the run they’ve been on after initially flopping with Harden has been dominant. From Nov. 16 through the All-Star break, the Clips went 33–10, trailing only the Celtics in wins in that time.
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The elephant in the room is the reigning champion Nuggets. Denver is ninth in net rating at plus-3.3, not very inspiring, but also the same mark it finished with last season. (The embodiment of the Alonzo Mourning gif, basically.) The Nuggets are fourth in the conference, and while only three games out of first, could be in a difficult spot to climb up. Remember—Denver dropped only one game at home last postseason and had home court in every playoff round.
I still don’t believe when push comes to shove anyone in the league really has a good answer for how to defend Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray down the stretch of a tight game. At the same time, the West is looking a lot more difficult at the top than it did last season. (I haven’t even really discussed the Phoenix Suns here, who have been rolling ever since Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal all finally got healthy at the same time.)
