Five Below Inc (NASDAQ:FIVE) reports third-quarter results on Wednesday after market close, offering a read on how inflation is pushing more shoppers toward discount retailers.
Here's what analysts expect and the key metrics to watch.
Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect Five Below to report third-quarter revenue of $983.1 million, up from $843.7 million according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst revenue estimates in five straight quarters and in seven of the last 10 quarters overall.
Analysts expect the company to report third-quarter earnings per share of 24 cents. That’s down from 42 cents per share in last year's third quarter.
The company has beaten analyst estimates in earnings per share in four straight quarters and in seven of the last 10 quarters overall.
The company‘s guidance calls for third-quarter revenue of $950 million to $970 million and earnings per share of 12 cents per share to 24 cents.
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What Experts Are Saying
Five Below is likely to beat estimates and raise guidance, according to Guggenheim analyst John Heinbockel.
The analyst maintained a Buy rating on the stock ahead of earnings and raised the price target from $165 to $185.
Heinbockel said that shares still have upside despite the year-to-date run in 2025.
"We still see meaningful, intermediate-term upside potential given the compelling combination of a 15% secular growth algo and modest ~13x EBITDA multiple," Heinbockel said.
The analyst expects "sizable 3Q sales and EBIT beats," but cautions that third-quarter sales represent a small fraction of the company's fiscal year results.
"The 3Q's significance lies in its entry rate to the all-important 4Q, not in its paltry P&L contribution."
The analyst expects strong early Q4 results and guidance from the company. New products, including a Wicked-themed $35 Beauty Fridge, are highlighted by the analyst along with the "Ultimate Gift Finder" and strong increased marketing efforts.
"We expect the year ahead to be heavily impacted, at a high level, by a tariff wrap-around effect and the cycling of outsized comps, especially in the middle of the year."
Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods highlighted the strength of discount retailers Five Below, Dollar General (NYSE:DG) and Dollar Tree Inc (NASDAQ:DLTR), in a weekly newsletter.
Of the stocks, which all report earnings this week, Woods said Five Below is "the big winner" based on double-digit revenue growth and strong stock price movement.
"The stock is up 57% year-to-date and leads all of its peers in share performance," Woods said.
The market expert said the three companies are all benefiting from "consumer trade downs" due to inflation and households being more budget conscious.
Here are other recent analyst ratings on Five Below and their price targets:
- Truist: Maintained Hold rating, raised price target from $148 to $168
- Mizuho: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $150 to $160
- UBS: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $184 to $204
- Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight rating, raised price target from $170 to $175
Key Items to Watch
Data from Placer.ai shows that visits to Five Below were up 13.3% year-over-year in the third calendar quarter.
This was higher than visit growth of 4.3% and 4.9% for Dollar Tree and Dollar General respectively, on a year-over-year basis.
Along with visits being up 15.9% and 10.7% year-over-year in August and September, visits were also up 19.2% year-over-year in October, which is included in the fiscal third quarter.
New store openings could be a continued theme in earnings as the company expands across the nation. Five Below opened 32 new stores in the second quarter.
The company previously raised full-year fiscal 2025 revenue and earnings per share guidance after second-quarter results.
Analysts and investors are likely expecting another raise based on visit growth and the strong share price.
Guidance could make shares highly volatile depending on a reiteration or raise to the figures.
Five Below Price Action
Five Below shares are up 3.8% to $165.00 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $52.38 to $168.85. Five Below shares are up 57.2% year-to-date in 2025.
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