First-Round Preview: Ducks, Dukes vie for Ground Control

The bowl season is in full swing as we head into the first Playoff game involving a team in the West.

Oregon hosts James Madison on Saturday in an underrated matchup.

The overachieving Sun Belt school that produced Indiana’s Curt Cignetti and future UCLA coach Bob Chesney faces off against a perennial P4 power with plenty to prove.

I preview the contest here and give my picks both straight up and against the spread.

No. 12 James Madison Dukes at No. 5 Oregon Ducks

College Football Playoff First Round
Saturday, December 20
Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
4:30 PM PT, TNT/HBO Max
(Bob Wischusen, Louis Riddick, Kris Budden and Stormy Buonantony)

Line: Oregon -21.5
Over/Under: 49.5

Let’s open this by stating one thing that has been getting overlooked a bit since the Playoff field was announced: James Madison is a legit program.

The Dukes are 40-10 since making the jump to FBS for the 2022 season, compiling a .800 win percentage that is the fifth-highest in the country, and the best of any G6 program.

Before making the jump, JMU posted six conference titles in its last seven seasons in the FCS, with a natty coming in 2016.

The Dukes are no flash in the pan, and the program knows how to win. (Think Gonzaga basketball circa 2002, post-Monson and a couple years into Mark Few’s tenure).

But let us also remember this: Oregon is a highly talented and dominant football team.

The Ducks’ lone loss this season came to the only unbeaten team in the nation. They earned the fifth seed and the right to host JMU, and there is a reason they are laying three touchdowns.

RB Wayne Knight vs Troy | Jeremy Hopkins/Special To The News Leader

Oregon has lost just two games in the past two years and is 20-2 in its last 22 games in Autzen Stadium.

While the Dukes should not be overlooked and surely won’t be pushovers, the Ducks should outman them.

So, why should Oregon be on the lookout for JMU? Well, it starts with the defense.

The Dukes rank second in the nation in total defense, allowing 247.6 yards per game, trailing only Ohio State.

Against the run, the Dukes are allowing just 2.48 yards per carry and held Louisville to 113 on the ground in September.

The last two games, JMU has allowed a minus-31 rushing yards. The Dukes have not faced a ground attack like Oregon’s, however.

UO is running for 218.4 yards per outing, 14th best in the nation, gaining 100 yards in every game except for the loss to Indiana.

Dante Moore vs Washington | ESPN

Moreover, Oregon has topped 176 on the ground in 10 of its 12 contests.

JMU does a good job of limiting the big runs, so Oregon may not break off many big ones, but they will be able to wear down the Dukes with their powerful O-Line.

A key to JMU’s success is controlling the tempo and they do that by running the ball. That will be a problem against Oregon.

UO is 20th in the nation against the run and should be able to control the line of scrimmage.

If the Ducks can take away the run, they will force JMU off the field and the Oregon offense will take advantage of a taxed JMU defensive front.

Sometimes it really is not about the X’s and the O’s and comes down to the Jimmy’s and Joe’s. This is one of those cases.

The Ducks may take a little time to get rolling, but they will dominate this one up front and get the win.

I could see this being a 35-14 kind of game….So give me Oregon and the Under.

Outright winner: Oregon
Against the Spread: Oregon
Total: Under