After a deficit southwest monsoon season, the first post-monsoon cyclone this year is brewing over the Arabian Sea.
Though the majority of the global weather models indicate the further intensification of the system, Kerala is likely to be spared by the tropical storm as the system may move towards the Oman coast as per the initial prognosis. However, the cyclone, if formed and intensified, will trigger above-normal rainfall across the State.
The relatively higher sea surface temperature (SST) prevailing on the western side of the Indian Ocean, characterised as Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (+1.850C), is favourable for the formation of cyclogenesis over the Arabian Sea region. It was too early to predict the strength of the system and its path, said a senior scientist of the India Meteorological department (IMD). Predicting the path of cyclones over the Arabian Sea in the initial stage seems to be a bit difficult for the meteorologists of late.
