Voters in Finland are participating in a historic presidential election at a time of unprecedented change for the country. With Finland now a NATO member and its eastern border with Russia closed, the nation finds itself in a position that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago.
The role of the president in Finland is particularly significant, as unlike in many other European countries, they hold executive power in formulating foreign and security policy, especially when dealing with countries outside the European Union such as the United States, Russia, and China. Additionally, the president serves as the supreme commander of the Finnish military, a crucial responsibility in today's security environment in Europe.
Approximately 4.5 million citizens are eligible to vote for the new head of state among nine candidates, comprising six men and three women. This election will determine the successor to the immensely popular President Sauli Niinistö, who cannot seek re-election as his second six-year term expires in March.
Given the number of candidates, it is unlikely that any one contender will secure more than 50% of the vote in the first round, leading to a runoff in February. Recent polls indicate that the frontrunners in this election are former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb and former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto.
Stubb, representing the conservative National Coalition Party and having served as the Finnish government's head from 2014 to 2015, along with Haavisto, an experienced politician and former United Nations diplomat running for the post for the third time, are estimated to each receive 23%-27% of the votes. Parliament speaker and former leader of the far-right Finns Party, Jussi Halla-aho, follows closely with around 18% of the projected vote share. Olli Rehn, the Bank of Finland governor and former EU Commissioner, is expected to receive approximately 14% of the votes.
Whoever assumes the presidency in March will inherit a significantly transformed geopolitical and security landscape in Europe compared to Niinistö's tenure. In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Finland decided to abandon its longstanding policy of military non-alignment, and in April, it became NATO's 31st member. This move was met with displeasure by Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the two countries share a substantial border. Finland's NATO membership has positioned it as a frontline state in the alliance's dealings with Russia, making the role of the president as a security policy leader more crucial than ever.
Despite the high-stakes nature of this election, Finnish politics have maintained their consensus-driven nature. The candidates have conducted their campaigns civilly, with a shared agreement on major foreign policy issues. They all acknowledge the importance of Finland's future relations with Russia, enhancing security cooperation with the United States, and continued support for Ukraine both militarily and through humanitarian assistance.
Pekka Haavisto commented on the civilized nature of the campaigning, emphasizing that there is a consensus on the fundamental questions. However, the credibility of the new president and their previous experience in foreign and security policy will be key factors in deciding the outcome of this election. Haavisto, in particular, played a significant role in Finland's NATO accession process when he served as foreign minister.
The preliminary results from the advance voting will be confirmed shortly after the polls close, and initial results from Sunday's election are expected by midnight. The first-round results will be officially confirmed on Tuesday. The likely second round of voting between the two candidates with the highest vote shares is scheduled to take place on February 11.
As Finland's citizens cast their votes, they are not only selecting their new head of state but also determining the course of their nation's foreign and security policies in an increasingly complex global landscape.
