The Cincinnati Bengals host what might be a Game of the Year contender on “Monday Night Football” against the visiting Buffalo Bills.
Those Bengals, winners of seven in a row at 11-4, can win the AFC North with a victory Monday night and remain in the hunt for the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed.
But those Bills, winners of six in a row and 12-3, will have something to say on the topic as they pursue the conference’s top seed, too.
It’s a nearly unpredictable game as it is, too. The teams carry the most combined wins of a MNF matchup ever into the contest. Odds have hovered around the one-point mark all week. Both teams have great defenses and MVP favorites at quarterback.
Start with the defenses. Buffalo allows just 17.5 points per game. Cincinnati, 20.4. Buffalo has a number of superstars on that side of the ball, though the one who might frustrate the Bengals the most is seven-sack pass-rusher Greg Rousseau, especially now that the offensive line misses La’el Collins. The Bengals project to get defensive end Sam Hubbard back, which will help massage the fact Trey Hendrickson is playing through a broken wrist.
Under center, Buffalo’s Josh Allen leads an offense that averages 28 points per game and has completed 63.4 percent of his passes with 32 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, also nearly leading the Bills in rushing with 746 yards and seven scores on the ground.
Joe Burrow’s Bengals average 26.1 points by way of his 69.0 completion percentage with 34 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’s underrated as a rusher too, scoring five times and picking up 27 first downs so far.
Burrow’s weapons could obviously give the Bills some problems through the air, but Buffalo has allowed 250-plus passing yards just five times this season. And for that to happen, Hakeem Adeniji or Isaiah Prince need to hold up at right tackle as the first and only shakeup for the offensive line all season. If they don’t, the team will have to shift the entire offense to compensate.
Further complicating things, at least on paper, is a rainy forecast that could ground the offenses. That could mean a more AFC North-style game which would put the Bengals right at home with DJ Reader leading in the charge in the defensive trenches, but it’s still not easy to slow a Bills rushing attack averaging 5.3 yards per carry with 15 scores.
In a matchup as close as this, it’s nitpicking that might help find an edge. Allen, for example, threw two interceptions last week and the game before that fumbled twice while running. He’s a little more risk-taking when it comes to turnovers compared to Burrow and that might provide the Bengals a big advantage. Things have also been very quiet for Buffalo’s top wideout Stefon Diggs over the last three games.
The game’s biggest x-factors? Lou Anarumo and Allen. Anarumo has been stunningly good at adjustments over the last two years and this feels like when he encounters Patrick Mahomes. First his defense pressures often, then in second halves falls back with eight in coverage and forces Mahomes to beat him that way. Difference is, Allen is a much better rusher and could dice up that strategy on the ground if the line and linebacker’s contains aren’t good enough.
It’s a chess match and a true pick ’em game. The difference might just come down to each quarterback’s propensity to take risks that lead to turnovers. Burrow’s safer there, and his wideouts might just make the big play that swings it while the defense flusters Allen just enough.
Prediction: Bengals 30, Bills 28
