The Cincinnati Bengals once again sit one game removed from the AFC title game.
A year ago, it was overcoming a trip to Tennessee to play Derrick Henry and the Titans. This year it’s a trip to Buffalo to play Josh Allen and the Bills.
Onlookers know the biggest overarching storyline — this is a rematch of the no-contest in Week 17, what was supposed to be one of the biggest games of the year before Damar Hamlin’s medical emergency.
So when looking ahead to this one, not only isn’t there that prior matchup to consider, but both teams looked so-so in the wild card round against division rivals.
In that round, the Bengals needed a record-breaking defensive play from Sam Hubbard to escape the Ravens starting a backup quarterback. Meanwhile, the Bills hardly slipped past a Dolphins team starting a third-string passer. The teams hosted both games.
While that’s a big talking point, it’s grain-of-salt material too — division games are tough, especially a third time. One, if not both teams, should look quite a bit better on Sunday. After all, the Bengals have won nine games in a row, the Bills eight.
The other major storyline is the battered state of the offensive line in front of Joe Burrow, which will start Jackson Carman at left tackle (for Jonah Williams), Max Scharping at right guard (Alex Cappa) and Hakeem Adeniji at right tackle (La’el Collins). That’s three of five starters missing after the unit had the most snaps of any starting five played together for most of the season.
And yet it’s almost hard to predict how that will actually impact things. The Cincinnati offense will shift to compensate, yet it’s not all that different from what they did last year en route to the Super Bowl. Burrow already gets the ball out faster than most quarterbacks in the league anyway and the Bills will be without Von Miller, the guy tied for a team-high with eight sacks in just 12 games. Buffalo has had to blitz more to counter, which if it happens Sunday, is something Burrow usually exploits.
An underrated problem for the Bengals? Top corner Chidobe Awuzie is out for the season and now Tre Flowers is doubtful going into this one. He’s the team’s specific tight-end stopper, which instead means first-round rookie Dax Hill (who got flagged three times last week) will likely get the assignment on Bills tight end Dawson Knox — a guy who has scored a touchdown in five straight games.
While the focus is rightfully on quarterbacks Burrow (4,475 yards, 35 TDs, 12 INTs, 68.3%, 5 rushing TD) and Allen (4,283 yards, 35 TDs, 14 INTs, 63.3%, 7 rushing TD), the game might just be decided in the defensive trenches.
Buffalo still has a robust amount of talent that can get after Burrow like Greg Rousseau and Ed Oliver. And the Bengals have Hubbard, Jospeh Ossai coming on strong lately and of course, Trey Hendrickson, broken wrist and all.
If the Cincinnati line can rattle Allen and limit his big rushing gains, the Bengals will be in a great spot to win. If Buffalo can get to Burrow fast with stunts and blitzes, the Bills will be in a great spot to win.
One can see why the game is so brutally tough to predict and feels like one of those this should/could be the conference title game affairs.
We’d be remiss not to mention a few things that strongly favor the Bengals, though. One is defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who has built his defense to contain Lamar Jackson twice a year and now has rattled Patrick Mahomes to a 3-0 standing against the Chiefs already. And one could call last week’s struggles an anomaly as they tried to prepare for Baltimore’s rare triple-option look. They get to prepare as normal for the Bills.
That means the Bengals are better prepared than most teams to deal with Allen, who — and this is very important — is a gunslinger and risk-taker with the ball in his hands. He threw 14 picks and fumbled eight times in 16 games, then threw two more and fumbled once last week. Turnovers are far from a guarantee and Allen is an MVP favorite likely every year from now on for good reason, but when it comes to protecting the ball and winning the turnover differential battle (the biggest decider of games), Burrow is usually much more reliable than Allen.
Another is the state of the Bills line in front of Allen, which has gotten a free pass thanks to the spotlight on the unit in front of Burrow. Allen took seven sacks last week against a so-so Dolphins team while committing those turnovers, so it could be a huge day for the defense again.
As is often the case, the Bengals have to not beat themselves in order to advance. The margin for error against a team like the Bills is incredibly slim and they need to actually catch those passes that have been dropped the last few weeks and make sure to reel in those very few interceptable passes tossed their way. Do that, and the odds of winning skyrocket.
The final prediction? Burrow takes care of the ball better than Allen and benefits from short fields as the Bengals defense flusters the Buffalo offense. If nothing else, they feel slighted and also understand two of their starting linemen could return as soon as the AFC title game. Adjustments and turnover differential ultimately win a showcase of the NFL’s elite passers.
Prediction: Bengals 30, Bills 27
