Welcome back. In case you (wisely) took the summer off from following professional football, there were angry running backs who weren’t getting paid, angry defensive stalwarts who weren’t getting paid and angry Kyle Trask supporters who had to watch Baker Mayfield Inc. walk away with the most highly watched training camp competition west of the Josh Dobbs–Clayton Tune battle royale.
We’re reintroducing you to all 32 teams and ranking them in terms of the power they possess right now, at this very moment. Imagine each of them as a separate island drifting away from Mother Pangea. Which ones have the best resources, the most usable coastline, the densest forest and the most fertile soil? We’re about to find out.
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1. Kansas City Chiefs
We don’t say it enough: This team is so good that someone was indicted on three counts of armed bank robbery, allegedly to afford following it around in a wolf costume. Its fans are so happy that one of them paid his bond. Ultimately, this has to be the goal for any franchise, no? Fans are so happy that their Grinchian hearts swell at the sight of their five-tool quarterback, and they decide to post an $80,000 bond for an accused criminal wolf-man, just because he’s a fellow Chiefsaholic.
Kansas City lands at No. 1 because this early in the season, we cannot get cute. The Chiefs are among a group of teams in an “elite” range. Patrick Mahomes then serves as a scale-tipper because, as we saw in the Super Bowl, when all else is at a stalemate, he can still create and advance.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Here’s how you can reel me into your subscription-based news service: Never again write the headline “Joe Burrow’s Return Date Revealed” while knowing full well that the only core information inside the post is Zac Taylor’s saying, We’ll take it day by day. Here’s what I would like, and I’ll pay $4.99 a month for the privilege. The day we know, just send a notification to my phone that plays in an audible whisper, the way you might tell a friend in public who is engaged in another conversation. “Hey, Joe Burrow is playing Week 2.” Until then, I will live in my pseudo-meditative state predicting a Bengals Super Bowl victory.
The Bengals are our No. 2 team to start the season because, as we’ve noted, they are deep, they are experienced and they have retained great talent. Cincinnati’s staff will get poached heavily after this season, but for now it remains one of the most dangerous bases of institutional knowledge in football.
3. San Francisco 49ers
Trey Lance is gone, leaving Kyle Shanahan to his true life’s work: rehabbing or maximizing the careers of immoble system quarterbacks. One could imagine that Lance was torturing the coach like an unfinished piece of artwork. Now, Shanahan’s piano is out of the sandbox. His true muse, the moderately paced strides of Sam Darnold, are dancing in his head.
The 49ers should win the NFC. I don’t see any real competition of their caliber, and while one-off losses can happen, they have a strong enough foundation to survive the next freak injury or offensive dry spell.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
I am not quite sure what the Eagles will do without messages of inspiration like this one. Jonathan Gannon is gone. Left the building. And with him, the energy bus has gone, too. Of course, if Gannon is truly following in Nick Sirianni’s footsteps, he will parlay one horrific scene of public speaking fodder into the groundwork for a Super Bowl campaign.
The Eagles clock in at No. 4 on our preseason power rankings, because I can’t shake the feeling that they are due for a bit of a regression. On paper, everything they’ve done has made so much sense, but that was also true of their team after their Super Bowl LII victory against the Patriots. Everything seemed in order, paced perfectly and destined for sustainable success. But … they had to endure their growing pains unique to that iteration of the roster. So, too, will this team.
5. Buffalo Bills
I think No. 5 is O.K., preferable even, for a Bills team and fan base that was utterly exhausted by the weight of its own expectations last year. In certain locales, a winning franchise means just a little bit more. Sean McVay having success in Los Angeles is not going to change the daily lives of the cashiers at House of Bijan on Rodeo Drive selling $880 yellow alligator wallets (a real thing).
Consider this a season in which the Bills are met with their realities: a QB who thrives because he takes on a lot, a wide receiver core in transition, a defense evolving. This takes time. Buffalo can still be good, but perhaps just the fifth-best team for now.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. The Chargers are hot, and my trendy pick to seriously upend the AFC West. At this point, I feel like the currency traders on YouTube who have been predicting the resurgence of the dinar since 2017. At some point, we will be right. It may just take a few years, dammit.
Anyway, this is as good a time as any to plug an offseason feature that really informed my newfound excitement in Los Angeles. The Chargers’ space and pace offense, guided by Brandon Staley’s love of the 1990s Chicago Bulls, could be a legitimate nightmare for teams if Mike Williams and Keenan Allen stay healthy.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s going to be a strange deal explaining to our kids that the Jaguars were once bad. Trevor Lawrence, beautifully groomed and evolving faster than an AI bot, will be slinging 35-plus touchdowns each year for the foreseeable future, and the franchise’s past will get buried like the Coca-Cola origin story.
Jacksonville finds itself at No. 7, presenting both promise and potential. The Jaguars should absolutely find themselves in the mix for a Super Bowl berth, with the understanding that the top offenses in this conference are very seasoned. They may need a few cracks at heavy hitters (such as Kansas City, for example), but in time we’ll see Jacksonville as a conference mainstay.
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8. Dallas Cowboys
No jokes here, but just a place to include a few kind words about Cowboys legend Gil Brandt. Gil was an integral part of the team’s success as both a franchise and a global brand. He was an innovator and as keen a football mind as you’ll come across. He was also such a kind soul. He will be missed.
Dallas comes into our initial poll at No. 8, just on the heels of the Eagles in the NFC East. I have the Cowboys projected as my eventual division champion this year, though the real proof will be in how Dak Prescott acclimates to what I imagine will be a more formulaic and lower-wattage offensive system. This could end up being good for Prescott, who will let the playmakers speak for themselves and take some pressure off himself.
9. Detroit Lions
Due to NFL script-writing laws, only one of the two running backs selected in the first round of this year’s draft is allowed to be a massive success. Here’s hoping that Jahmyr Gibbs silently possesses a burning desire to have been selected by the Falcons—a deep, unknown love of the suburb of Alpharetta and its modest median home prices despite the wealth of square footage availability. And here’s hoping Gibbs takes that out on his opponents every Sunday, which will be great news for all fantasy folks who had to take Justin Jefferson with the No. 1 pick and then didn’t select again until pick No. 344, at which time Gibbs was the highest-rated running back available.
10. New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers likened working for the Jets to waking up from a dream and remaining in your fantasy. This is either going to be the greatest pairing of a veteran quarterback with a wayward franchise ever, or a warehouse of easily juxtaposed quotes with which we can make memes and backpage headlines throughout the season. Either way, it’s beautiful. In that vein, it is sort of like waking up in a dream, if you dream about content.
The Jets come in at No. 10, because we are largely hesitant but also aware of their potential. This defense could be scary, like Madden-on-Rookie-Mode good. Rodgers and Garrett Wilson seem to be getting along swimmingly after a series of subtle threats from the quarterback's henchman Randall Cobb. This is the recipe for success.
11. Baltimore Ravens
Seeing Baltimore after its preseason win streak was snapped will be a lot like watching Samson emerge from the hair salon. Still, there is a great deal of optimism around a team that should contend fiercely for second place in the AFC North. The Ravens’ combination of Jadeveon Clowney and Odell Beckham Jr. is a fever dream for the Rivals recruiting obsessives of a certain generation who loved watching high school football highlights. Isn’t this all that really matters?
Baltimore’s success this season hinges on the streamlining of its new offense, which may look wildly different, or will just present a different way to overwork Mark Andrews into exhaustion. The Ravens come in at No. 12 because, as exciting as their roster is on paper, there is still the whole business of breaking in a rookie wide receiver to be a focal point in an offense. The Ravens’ defense, on the other hand, will begin the season lights out.
12. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks open their season against the Rams, who have been a kind of stylistic muse for them as of late. I think we could see a very dangerous version of the offense once rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is at full strength following his wrist surgery.
In a global sense, it’s hard not to appreciate what is happening with Pete Carroll now. Here’s a boomer who insisted that his way was the right way, was chastised for it for the better part of a decade, and is now riding out his golden years getting to say, “I told you so.” This would be like if an entire family came to their grandparent en masse, solemnly bowed their heads and said: “You’re right. We shouldn’t have ever signed up for those credit cards. Hard work is really the only thing that matters. We made a funny face and it did stick that way. Tucked in shirts into jeans are a classic look that won’t soon fade away.” Imagine how happy that would make the grandparent. Carroll has 70,000 people doing it every Sunday.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
I’ve told this story before, but once, in college, I was outside at a party and I met this person who asked me if I liked music. “Sure,” I said. He asked what I was listening to. At the time, I had just downloaded a Robert Plant and Alison Krauss record, and I was enjoying it. He then asked if I’d ever heard of the Dirty Projectors. I said no. He said, “Well then, you don’t know anything about music,” and walked away.
When I talk about the Steelers, I feel like that guy. It’s not the Dirty Projectors I’m being smug about though, it’s Year 2 Kenny Pickett. If you don’t like Year 2 Kenny Pickett, I’m going to be a jerk about it.
No. 13 means the Steelers are expected to be competitive—almost as competitive as Baltimore and more competitive than Cleveland. This may not be a popular opinion, but I do think that a healthy T.J. Watt makes this defense dangerous enough to sustain whatever further growing pains we get from Pickett. A Daniel Jones–type ascension, from neutral player to winning player with mobility as a tipping point advantage, is not out of the realm of possibility.
14. Miami Dolphins
A healthy and progressed Tua Tagovailoa will make a lot of people (myself included) feel silly. So, why does Miami come in at No. 14 on our power rankings? I do think we’re ignoring the impact that a divisional arms race can have on teams as a whole. The Bills are clearly the best suited in the AFC East for this kind of long-term marathon, given the quarterback, but at what point will these teams start clawing each others’ eyes out? There is no sweepable division opponent in the AFC East. Further, this ranking reflects an uncertainty as to whether Miami will evolve its offense in Year 2 under Mike McDaniel, or whether it will try to major in what it does best, at a faster pace. If it’s the latter, teams that have spent the offseason watching McDaniel could come prepared with more answers for his speed and lateral motioning techniques.
15. New York Giants
My visit to Giants camp this summer solidified that Brian Daboll will do whatever he can to win games. We don’t know what the Giants will look like on a week-to-week basis, and that may end up being one of the biggest matchup issues for opponents, given New York’s need to swing with the element of surprise. Darren Waller, if healthy, will be a major security blanket for Daniel Jones, who, with a more dependable option alongside Saquon Barkley, can further flummox defenses. Opposing teams will have to devote a lot of bodies to the box to ensure that a running back checkdown or tight end drag route doesn’t pilfer them to death.
16. Tennessee Titans
Let’s keep in mind for a second that the Titans were 7–3 in November last year. Injuries were a difficult part of their season, but I can count 10 valuable, or somewhat valuable, players who were injured just before the end of November, and who sustained injuries throughout the remainder of the season. While all teams face some kind of attrition in that regard, and Tennessee is predisposed given the age of some of its best players, I don’t see why the Titans can’t arrive at the same point with largely the same record and see a different and better path open for them. Down the stretch, the Titans get both of their games against the Texans and a game against the Colts. Their toughest opponent on the back end of their schedule is the Seahawks, which is a home game that forces Seattle to travel cross-country. I think the Titans can grind out more wins than we might assume at this moment, and No. 16 on our list reflects that kind of high-floor potential.
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17. Los Angeles Rams
I have said all offseason that the Rams at over 6.5 wins is a massive coup for betters, if you are into that kind of thing. I feel like this team, even without Cooper Kupp, can fall into at least seven wins. It has the Cardinals twice, don’t you know? That helps.
Still, we can’t discount the possibility of Los Angeles’s struggling to find its footing in the post–Super Bowl era. This is a team breaking in new players and expecting really young talent to act much older than their birth certificates. It can either create a fantastic kind of momentum or lead to some real ugliness. Do I think Sean McVay will let it get ugly? No. But, do we put a kind of unnecessarily weighty pressure on a guy who is human like the rest of us? Hell yeah.
18. Green Bay Packers
The bad news for Jordan Love is that Aaron Rodgers did not go to New York and immediately turn into Willem Dafoe from Spiderman (a.k.a. Green Goblin). From a social standpoint, how much easier is it to thrive when everyone knows the person you replaced is a jerk? Rodgers is currently charming the Northeast. It’s true. I live here. He’s the biggest thing since early Chris Christie, or early Rudy Giuliani, or early Amar’e Stoudemire, or early Giancarlo Stanton, or … well, you get it. These things all end well.
Anyway, I think the growth potential for this offense is huge. Like a lot of teams, Green Bay will be different by Week 10 than it is now, which is especially true for the growth of the tight end position. I was impressed with Luke Musgrave in the preseason. If you compare his willingness to pass block and his fight to some of the other teams that faced the Patriots, for example, it stands out. While Musgrave, like all tight ends, is going to have to develop as he faces more complex pass rushes, wanting to get better and displaying basic competency in stressful situations is a great starting point. And having a dual threat blocker, big-bodied receiver in that offense, is a code breaker.
19. New England Patriots
As someone who has gone very far out on a limb to pick New England to win the AFC East, nothing gives me more confidence than when its coach stunningly cuts all the other quarterbacks on the roster like some impulsive Greek emperor. (Bailey Zappe and Malik Cunningham are fine, they’re just on the practice squad now and not in the pit of death.) Don’t worry, Matt Corral is here and may or may not be the backup. Glad we’ve got it all sorted out before the start of Week 1. New England comes in at a low No. 19, because I acknowledge it’s going to take some time for people to see what I see. I see depth, and I see an offense that isn’t going to generate a ton of back-breaking big plays, but one that will consistently generate first downs. I see pride. I see power.
20. Minnesota Vikings
Too low? While the Vikings were historically fortunate a year ago, they do have a lot of pillars working in their favor. Atop the organization sits Kevin O’Connell, who is the latest McVay coaching product to take charge of his own team and find somewhat immediate success. A Vikings fan could fairly argue that the team succeeded despite an underperforming defense and that, maybe, a more successful defense would negate situations where the Vikings are in one-score games to begin with. Their spot in our preseason poll underlines that uncertainty. The NFC North is going to be more competitive; we don’t know whether personnel lined up for a Vic Fangio–defensive system can translate immediately to a more Bill Belichick–aligned system, though, again, the Vikings have thrown a lot of effort into bolstering their secondary.
21. Atlanta Falcons
I do hope that the 2023 Falcons are nothing like the Simpsons video game, which may have been the last thing I was this irrationally excited about, only to be let down. For the people saying that Desmond Ridder isn’t going to be talented enough to accentuate the skill-position talent, I would counter that they’ve never seen a truly gifted point guard at work. Ridder can and will be that guy. Putting Atlanta at No. 21 is a fair reflection of future potential, a stock that you could, and should, buy now and enjoy the profits later on.
22. Cleveland Browns
The Browns come in at No. 22 on our list, though I am honestly having a hard time saying why. In almost any other circumstance, this team would be a no-brainer candidate to break out; the kind of team I would confidently put high up on this list despite a lack of success before 2023. It has elite players at positions on the offensive line, running back, defensive line and in the secondary. Its upgrade at defensive coordinator almost assures the team a higher base level of competence. Myles Garrett now has the interior help to wreck games on the regular. Still, there is something holding me back. Maybe it’s the smoke about Deshaun Watson and the offense not quite jelling (is it typical Ja’Marr-Chase-can't-catch-style preseason smoke, or real smoke?). Maybe there’s a bit of doubt as to how well this receiving corps can support Watson. Either way, they’re No. 22 for now, going on 10, or, in a horrific blow for the franchise, remaining somewhere in this vicinity despite all it’s risked to get here.
23. Chicago Bears
Expectations are high for Justin Fields this season, but I think we’re missing the ultimate point. I think expectations should be just as high, if not higher, for Matt Eberflus in Year 2. Going back a few years now, Eberflus was the defensive equivalent to Sean McVay, and this is a chance for him to have more input on roster-making decisions and create a defense in his image. After going for an offensive tackle in the first round of the 2023 draft, the Bears went defensive tackle, cornerback, defensive tackle. Based on Ryan Poles’s early successes as a GM—in terms of identifying late-round success stories—we should have as much of a focus on how this defense becomes a foundation for this team long-term as we do on its young quarterback.
24. New Orleans Saints
O.K., Saints fans aside, where is anyone else ranking this team in their power rankings? Getting to the Saints in power rankings feels like one of those children’s activity worksheets where you have to pick which thing doesn’t belong. There’s a hammer, nails, a tape measure and a copy of Neil Diamond’s Hot August Night. What the hell are we supposed to do with Neil? Are the Saints going to be good? Maybe. Will Alvin Kamara return to a vehicle already in motion and add juice to a contender? Maybe. Will this aging-but-still-talented defense have a stoic, injury-free season? Maybe. Or, will it not? I guess one could say this about every team, but the Saints are uniquely doubt-able this year. So, No. 24 feels right.
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25. Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young and the Panthers are going to end the season higher up than No. 25. They begin here because, ultimately, we cannot extrapolate a preseason. That said, Young looks more ready than any of his 2023 QB draft class counterparts, and more ready than anyone I’ve seen in a preseason game since Trevor Lawrence. A reasonable win ceiling for this Panthers team is nine games, based on the overall weaknesses of the division. I don’t think it’s far off to say the Panthers could win this division, simply based on the fact that Young will make fewer mistakes and have a shorter learning curve than a lot of young quarterbacks.
26. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are truly an effort in the power of positive reframing. If the Cardinals had a quarterback depth chart made up of an oft-ailing Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell—with a majority of the fan base hoping that O’Connell eventually took the reins—we’d smooth that in nicely to our tanking narrative. In Sin City, this is a sign of foundational depth. Beauty is truly in the eyes of the beholder. In all seriousness, O’Connell looked awesome this preseason. I am holding the Raiders’ power ranking space hostage until they agree to make him the permanent starter.
27. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts safely land at No. 27 before Jim Irsay creates a YouTube channel to analyze Anthony Richardson’s starts in real time and further destroy chemistry for content. Indianapolis’s 2023 season will be all about sifting through the river and panning out some franchise talent that doesn’t play guard or off-ball linebacker. That would represent a major degree of success with a somewhat low bar. So, for now, this spot feels right.
28. Washington Commanders
The Commanders sold out their home opener against the Cardinals, which has to be the absolute biggest vote of support for a new owner in NFL history. A large group of people willingly signed up to watch this team play against the worst quarterback depth chart in recent NFL history, all because of their collective hatred of the former owner. Who says feelings of disdain can’t bring people together? Anyway, the Commanders are starting low on this list, but, as my parents always told me, that just leaves plenty of room to grow. Here’s to a 2023 fueled by new beginnings and old hatred.
29. Denver Broncos
I’m gonna tread lightly here since the Fan Sensitivity Index™ is quite high in Denver. I’m going to allow the Broncos fan base to fully celebrate and immerse itself in post-prime Russell Wilson, post–Drew Brees Sean Payton and a post–Ejiro Evero and Vic Fangio defense. No really, it’s going to be great, I’m so happy for you all. Instead of further analysis, I’m going to reference this blog written by Dr. Narveen Dosanjh about the Five Ways To Help Someone Who Is In A Bad Relationship. Healing only begins when you see the problems for yourself.
30. Houston Texans
Nick Caserio helps the Texans jump from one spot below this on our list by refusing to say the name “Ben Roethlisberger” publicly. What a badass move. No one talks about your offensive lineman-converted-to-fullback that way. If the Texans put half as much defensiveness and care into C.J. Stroud, we will be talking about this year’s No. 2 draft pick the way we used to talk about some guy who played quarterback for the Steelers. Caserio should start a podcast.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A good way for the Buccaneers to start the 2023 campaign: pissing off Mike Evans, a player who, I assumed, would be throwing the ball to himself this year. It will be much harder to motivate Evans to do so when he feels underappreciated and underpaid. I am not sure what step this is in Tampa Bay’s covert #CrashForCaleb campaign, but it is indeed a critical one.
32. Arizona Cardinals
O.K. We’ve had our fun with the Gannon video, but just look at this room. Just look at it. The feeling is eerily similar to the one I had when Hue Jackson was flailing during his latter years in Cleveland. His appearances on Hard Knocks, which were approved by the club, made him look foolish and out of his element. Gannon’s team allowed this to make it to Twitter, the meanest place on the internet. They wanted you to see him staged like a Tim Robinson character. Why? We’ll soon find out.
