Predicting what the Cincinnati Bengals will do in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft almost feels like a foolish pursuit.
The Bengals typically go best player available and aren’t above drafting need a year or more out — who really saw Dax Hill coming last year?
To muddy the outlook ever further, the Bengals adequately addressed almost every need on the roster in free agency, adding a name like Cody Ford at tackle, Sidney Jones at corner and Irv Smith Jr. at tight end — never mind the splash with Orlando Brown.
So maybe one of the easiest things we could do is look at what other teams might do. For example, the Dallas Cowboys keep getting linked to tight end Michael Mayer. It seems Dalton Kincaid will be gone too.
Mocks consistently have Bijan Robinson, Darnell Wright, Joey Porter Jr. and often Calijah Kancey off the board too. Where there’s smoke, especially via mocks from experts in the know, there’s usually fire.
We also have to think about positional value. Is the second or third best tight end in one of the deepest classes ever worth a first-rounder? Is the third or fourth offensive tackle when La’el Collins is on the comeback trail and Jonah Williams remains on the roster?
Cornerback feels like a serious threat given the premium nature of the spot and the need for long-term insurance across from Cam Taylor-Britt. But that requires a name like Emmanuel Forbes falling and other teams letting a premium spot fall.
It’s hard not to circle back to the Jahmyr Gibbs buzz. The positional value is horrific, but does that matter if it dramatically upgrades the offense right away and provides a long-term solution? At No. 28, which is practically a second-round pick as it is but comes with a built-in fifth-year option, is it really that bad of a value?
Maybe not, because defenses won’t be able to drop two deep, not with one of the best receiving threats in college at running back on the roster. Gibbs could split carries with Joe Mixon for a year, then take over as the primary back, saving the team cash and extending the offense’s championship window.
It’s the same sort of logic if Kancey fell. He’s an elite pass-rushing interior prospect who could pair with B.J. Hill and make the unit that much better.
The fact Gibbs is a running back is what makes the idea so appalling and appealing at the same time. There’s a stigma about the position, but it’s also perhaps the easiest position to project into the NFL — Gibbs is going to feast, especially when Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Irv Smith are commanding attention, too. All those little dump-offs underneath to Mixon that went for 3-4 yards could suddenly be 8-10. It’s been a critical element missing from the attack for two years.
Running back or not, there’s a reason Gibbs has also drawn interest from a team like the Chiefs. It’s a bit of a luxury pick, but one that strengthens the team’s Super Bowl chances in 2023 and makes the future more manageable beyond that season.
Prediction: Bengals select RB Jahmyr Gibbs
