A final pre-election poll shows the National party will need both ACT and New Zealand First's numbers to form government.
Australian pollster Roy Morgan released its final survey of the NZ landscape on Friday evening, confirming a tight contest between the left and right blocs.
While the numbers differed slightly from other polls released this week, the outcome was the same - National can end Labour's two terms in office on Saturday and govern with a three-party coalition.
National has the support of 30.5 per cent of New Zealanders (down 0.5 per cent) - its lowest polling result in four months.
It will be boosted by ACT on 11.5 per cent (down 6.5) and Winston Peters' NZ First on 7.5 per cent (up two).
Chris Hipkins' incumbent Labour party is behind National, with 26 per cent (up two).
The Greens have enjoyed a strong campaign, and are on 15 per cent (up 2.5) while the Maori Party charted three per cent support (down one).
In 2023, the parties are divided into two camps - left and right.
The right bloc of National, ACT and NZ First holds 49.5 per cent support.
The left bloc of Labour, the Greens and the Maori Party trails with 44 per cent support.
Roy Morgan chief executive Michele Levine said the poll showed the election on a "knife-edge", with NZ First's rise particularly dramatic.
"Once again it is a late surging New Zealand First which is set to decide who the country's next prime minister is," she said.
"Support for New Zealand First has increased rapidly over the last year since bottoming out at only one per cent support in September 2022."
The Roy Morgan poll also gave rise to a wildcard result, with The Opportunities Party registering a shock 3.5 per cent result (up 1.5 per cent).
To enter parliament, parties must hit a five per cent nationwide threshold of the party vote, or win an electorate seat, as the Maori Party did in 2020.
To win, Labour and the left bloc must overturn their polling deficit and overcome expectations of a poor turnout.
In the 2020 election, 2.9 million voters cast ballots - a turnout rate of 82 per cent.
The latest advance voting figures released by the Electoral Commission show 1.16 million New Zealanders had voted up to Thursday.
Those numbers are tracking just above the 2017 contest, but below the last election - which analysts attribute to a high demand for advance voting due to COVID-19.
LATEST NEW ZEALAND POLITICAL POLL: ROY MORGAN
National: 30.5 per cent (down 0.5 per cent) - likely 39 MPs in parliament
Labour: 26 (up two) - 33 MPs
Greens: 15 (up 2.5) - 19 MPs
ACT: 11.5 (down 6.5) - 15 MPs
NZ First: 7.5 (up two) - 10 MPs
TOP: 3.5 (up 1.5) - No MPs
Maori Party: three (down one) - four MPs
