A range of independent TDs are contemplating the prospect of entering Ireland’s next coalition government as Fianna Fail and Fine Gael consider ways to secure a solid majority.
Three long days of counting in the General Election finished late on Monday night when the final two seats were declared in the constituency of Cavan-Monaghan.
Fianna Fail was the clear winner of the election, securing 48 of the Dail parliament’s 174 seats.
Sinn Fein took 39 and Fine Gael 38.
Labour and the Social Democrats both won 11 seats; People Before Profit-Solidarity took three; Aontu secured two; and the Green Party retained only one of its 12 seats. Independents and others accounted for 21 seats.
The return of a Fianna Fail/Fine Gael-led coalition is now highly likely.
However, their combined seat total of 86 leaves them just short of the 88 needed for a majority in the Dail.
While the two centrist parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century could look to strike a deal with one of the Dail’s smaller centre-left parties, such as the Social Democrats or Labour, a more straightforward route to a majority could be achieved by securing the support of several independent TDs.
For Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin and current taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris, wooing like-minded independents would be likely to involve fewer policy concessions, and financial commitments, than would be required to convince another party to join the government benches.
Longford-Westmeath independent TD Kevin “Boxer” Moran, who served in a Fine Gael-led minority government between 2017 and 2020, expressed his willingness to listen to offers to join the new coalition in Dublin.
“Look, my door’s open,” he told RTE. “Someone knocks, I’m always there to open it.”
Marian Harkin, an independent TD for Sligo-Leitrim, expressed her desire to participate in government as she noted that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael were within “shouting distance” of an overall majority.
“That means they will be looking for support, and I certainly will be one of those people who will be speaking to them and talking to them and negotiating with them, and I’m looking forward to doing that, because that was the reason that I ran in the first place,” she said.
Meanwhile, the Social Democrats and Irish Labour Party both appear cautious about the prospect of an alliance with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.
They will no doubt be mindful of the experience of the Green Party, the junior partner in the last mandate. The Greens experienced near wipeout in the election, retaining only one of their 12 seats.
Sinn Fein appears to currently have no realistic route to government, given Fianna Fail and Fine Gael’s ongoing refusal to share power with the party.
Despite the odds being stacked against her party, Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald contacted the leaders of the Social Democrats and Labour on Monday to discuss options.
Earlier, Fianna Fail deputy leader and outgoing Finance Minister Jack Chambers predicted that a new coalition government would not be in place before Christmas.
Mr Chambers said planned talks about forming an administration required “time and space” to ensure that any new government will be “coherent and stable”.
After an inconclusive outcome to the 2020 election, it took five months for Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Greens to strike the last coalition deal.
Mr Chambers said he did not believe it would take that long this time, as he noted the Covid-19 pandemic was a factor in 2020, but he also made clear it would not be a swift process.
He said he agreed with analysis that there was no prospect of a deal before Christmas.
“I don’t expect a government to be formed in mid-December, when the Dail is due to meet on December 18, probably a Ceann Comhairle (speaker) can be elected, and there’ll have to be time and space taken to make sure we can form a coherent, stable government,” he told RTE.
“I don’t think it should take five months like it did the last time – Covid obviously complicated that. But I think all political parties need to take the time to see what’s possible and try and form a stable government for the Irish people.”
Fine Gael minister of state Peter Burke said members of his parliamentary party would have to meet to consider their options before giving Mr Harris a mandate to negotiate a new programme for government with Fianna Fail.
“It’s important that we have a strong, stable, viable government, whatever form that may be, to ensure that we can meet the challenges of our society, meet the challenges in terms of the economic changes that are potentially going to happen,” he told RTE.
Despite being set to emerge with the most seats, it has not been all good news for Fianna Fail.
The party’s outgoing Health Minister Stephen Donnelly became one of the biggest casualties of the election when he lost his seat in Wicklow in the early hours of Monday morning.
Mr Donnelly was always predicted to face a fight in the constituency after boundary changes saw it reduced from five to four seats.
If it is to be a reprise of the Fianna Fail/Fine Gael governing partnership of the last mandate, one of the major questions is around the position of taoiseach and whether the parties will once again take turns to hold the Irish premiership during the lifetime of the new government.
The outcome in 2020 saw the parties enter a coalition on the basis that the holder of the premier position would be exchanged midway through the term.
Fianna Fail leader Mr Martin took the role for the first half of the mandate, with Leo Varadkar taking over in December 2022. Current Fine Gael leader Mr Harris succeeded Mr Varadkar as taoiseach when he resigned from the role earlier this year.
However, this time Fianna Fail has significantly increased its seat lead over Fine Gael, compared with the last election when there were only three seats between the parties.
The size of the disparity in party numbers is likely to draw focus on the rotating taoiseach arrangement, raising questions as to whether it will be re-run in the next coalition and, if it is, on what terms.
On Sunday, Simon Coveney, a former deputy leader of Fine Gael, said a coalition that did not repeat the rotating taoiseach arrangement in some fashion would be a “difficult proposition” for his party.
Meanwhile, Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe said he would be making the case for Mr Harris to have another opportunity to serve as taoiseach.
On Monday, Mr Chambers said while his party would expect to lead the government it would approach the issue of rotating the taoiseach’s role on the basis of “mutual respect” with Fine Gael.
“I think the context of discussions and negotiations will be driven by mutual respect, and that’s the glue that will drive a programme for government and that’s the context in which we’ll engage,” he said.
On Monday, Labour leader Ivana Bacik reiterated her party’s determination to forge an alliance with fellow centre-left parties with the intention of having a unified approach to the prospect of entering government.
Asked if Labour was prepared to go into government with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael on its own, she told RTE: “No, not at this stage. We are absolutely not willing to do that.
“We want to ensure there’s the largest number of TDs who share our vision and our values who want to deliver change on the same basis that we do.”
The Social Democrats have been non-committal about any potential arrangement with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, and have restated a series of red lines they would need to achieve before considering taking a place in government.
Leader Holly Cairns, who gave birth to a daughter on polling day on Friday, said in a statement: “The party is in a very strong position to play an important role in the next Dail. In what position, government or opposition, remains to be seen.”
Fianna Fail secured the most first preference votes in Friday’s proportional representation election, taking 21.9% to Fine Gael’s 20.8%. Sinn Fein came in third on 19%.
While Sinn Fein’s vote share represented a marked improvement on its disappointing showing in June’s local elections in Ireland, it is still significantly down on the 24.5% poll-topping share it secured in the 2020 general election.
The final breakdown of first preferences also flipped the result of Friday night’s exit poll, which suggested Sinn Fein was in front on 21.1%, with Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fail on 19.5%.
