The PGA Tour heads to TPC Southwind this week for the FedEx St. Jude's Championship, the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The field has been shortened to just 70 players this year, and the event will no longer feature a cut. The FedEx St. Jude's has undergone several structural changes over the years. Up until 2018, it was a regular PGA Tour event, which rarely attracted a strong field. From 2018 through 2021, it was given a WGC title, which yielded an illustrious group of winners (Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Abraham Ancer).
Last year, it debuted as a FedEx Cup playoff event and was won by Will Zalatoris in a playoff over Sepp Straka. The 2022 iteration will once again be the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, albeit on a much more exclusive field. Jon Rahm leads the season-long points race after a four-win season that included his second major championship. Yet Scottie Scheffler is hot on the tail of an impressive season in his own right with 16 straight top-25 finishes, including wins at the elevated Players Championship and Waste Management Phoenix Open. With the 2022-2023 playoffs on the horizon, the race for the FedEx Cup is heating up just in time.
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FedEx St. Jude Championship: Course Preview
TPC Southwind
TPC Southwind continues our Southeastern swing as we are once again headed to a Bermuda track where narrow fairways, water hazards, and a hot and sticky climate are sure to characterize our week. The Ron Pritchard design is about as middle of the road of a PGA Tour venue as it gets. It’s not a short and positional club down course like a Sedgefield or Waialae, but it’s not overly long or driver heavy either. It ranks squarely in the middle of the pack in terms of scoring difficulty and bears resemblance to Innisbrook and East Lake in the sense that birdies are available, yet smaller greens, unpredictable Bermuda rough, and enough longer approach shots prevent scoring from ever getting out of hand. The aforementioned Bermuda rough, as well as 11 different water hazards, characterize the challenge of the golf course, which ranked second out of 38 PGA Tour courses last year in missed fairway penalty.
Although we have seen elite iron players such as Will Zalatoris and Justin Thomas triumph with less-than-stellar driving, long and accurate driving remains paramount at TPC Southwind. Over 40% of strokes gained came via approach last year, which is well above Tour average and remains the most important aspect of TPC Southwind. It’s easy to categorize every PGA Tour track as a second shot course, but the Pritchard design is a true embodiment of that ideal. Elite overall ball-striking, with a specific emphasis on total driving and middle iron creates the easiest pathway to success at TPC Southwind, as it is not a golf course that provides much pushback on and around its flat putting surfaces. Ultimately, I will be looking to identify strong long-term ball-strikers who consistently raise their baseline on Bermuda tracks.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Key Stats
- Good Drive Percentage
- Long-Term Proximity 125-200 yards
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green: Bermuda Courses
Predict the top three finishers at this week's FedEx St Jude Championship for a chance to win this Golf Monthly x OddsChecker free-to-play golf contest.
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FedEx St. Jude Championship: Outright Winner
Tyrrell Hatton (+2500) (Bet $100 to collect $2,600) For the best Tyrrell Hatton odds go to FanDuel
Tyrrell Hatton has put together a remarkable PGA Tour season, with a victory as the lone hole in his resume. With a 20th-place finish at the Open Championship, the fiery Englishman recorded his 13th top-30 finish of the season in 18 starts. Hatton gained strokes ball-striking for the 21st straight start, and he now returns stateside to Bermuda grass greens, a surface he has been the number one putter in this field on over the last two years. The 31-year-old has always been a great putter and iron player, but his ascent into one of the best players in the world can best be explained by his driving. Hatton has turned into one of the best overall drivers on Tour, featuring both plus distance and elite accuracy. TPC Southwind is a course that rewards total driving and elite short to middle iron play, two skills that Hatton excels at. Of the players with the proper ball-striking chops to win this tournament, Hatton has the most trustable flat-stick, and a victory in Memphis would be the perfect capstone to an incredibly impressive season.
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Collin Morikawa (+2800) (Bet $100 to collect $2,900) FanDuel has the best Collin Morikawa odds
It’s hard to believe that it’s been over two years since Collin Morikawa’s last PGA Tour victory, but I have long felt that TPC Southwind was the ideal fit for the two-time major champion’s game. Even coming off a disappointing missed cut at the Open Championship, Morikawa still gained over a stroke off the tee and still enters this week as the number one player in this field in good drive percentage. Even during a prolonged absence from the winner’s circle, Morikawa has remained a top-five short to middle-iron player in the world. In a vacuum, if we hold the belief that TPC Southwind can be simplified to a total driving and middle iron test, there are few better options in this field than Collin Morikawa. His short game and putters are always a concern, but TPC Southwind features some of the most benign greenside surrounds and putting surfaces on the PGA Tour. It should not come as a surprise that Morikawa has gained over 2.5 strokes ball-striking in all three appearances at the Ron Pritchard design, which includes a fifth-place finish last year. It’s been far too long for a player of Morikawa’s caliber to avoid the winner’s circle, and TPC Southwind is the perfect venue for him to end this surprising drought.
Once again, OddsChecker odds comparison tool comes to the fore, as there is a difference of $300 in returns when you bet $100 on Collin Morikawa at FanDuel rather than DraftKings, BetMGM, and Bet365.
