Albania’s 1-0 defeat against Spain last night means England have already qualified for the last-16 of Euro 2024 with a game to spare.
With four points, even defeat against Slovenia tonight would not prevent the Three Lions from going through as at least one of the four best third-placed teams.
But finishing top of Group C could be crucial because it would put them on the more favourable side of the draw, and away from Germany, Spain and Portugal.
The winner of Group C will play one of the best third-placed teams from Group D, E or F. Austria look likely to emerge from Group D as the third-placed team. In Group E, Belgium, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine are tied on three points apiece while, in Group F, Turkey, Czech Republic and Georgia could all end up in third place.
Next would be a quarter-final with either Switzerland or Italy before potentially France in the semi-finals if the they can seal top spot in their group this evening. However, if they fail to better Netherlands’ result it will be the Dutch in line to finish first.
If England finish second in Group C, they face a nightmare route to Berlin.
They would face Germany in the last-16 and Spain would be possible quarter-final opponents before potentially Portugal in the semi-finals.
The most simple equation for England tonight is beating Slovenia in Cologne to secure top spot.
It is possible for England to finish top with a draw. That would leave them on five points and a goal difference of plus-one, meaning Denmark would have to beat Serbia by two goals to guarantee first place.
If Denmark fail to beat Serbia, England will finish top so long as they avoid defeat. Slovenia, meanwhile, only need a point to qualify.
As things stand, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary and Slovenia are going through as the four best third-placed teams but that is likely to change in the coming days.
