Geert Wilders’ far-right, anti-Islam Party for Freedom (PVV) is on course to be the largest party in the Dutch parliament, according to exit polls, in a major electoral upset whose reverberations will be felt around Europe.
The PVV, whose manifesto includes calls for bans on mosques, the Qur’an and Islamic headscarves in government buildings, was predicted to win 37 seats in the 150-seat parliament, more than double the number it won in the previous ballot in 2021.
However, it is unclear whether Wilders – whose party has finished second and third in previous elections, but always been shut out of government – will be able to win enough support to form a coalition with a working parliamentary majority.
“I call on the parties,” Wilders said in an initial reaction after the vote. “The campaign is over and the voters have spoken. Now we will have to look for agreements with each other. With a wonderful position of 35 seats, the PVV can no longer be ignored.”
He insisted in his victory speech that he was “confident we can reach an agreement”, adding: “I understand perfectly well we should not take any measures that would be unconstitutional.”
Far-right figures across Europe including Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, France’s Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini in Italy and Germany’s AfD rushed to congratulate the PVV leader. But the heads of the three other biggest Dutch parties have all said they would not serve in a PVV-led cabinet.
A left-leaning GreenLeft-Labour party alliance (GL/PvdA) led by former EU commissioner Frans Timmermans, forecast to finish second on 25 seats, has said it would not enter any coalition with the PVV as a member, as has campaigning centre-right MP Pieter Omtzigt’s centrist New Social Contract (NSC) party, which is in fourth place with 20 seats.
The liberal-conservative Party for Freedom and Democracy of the outgoing prime minister, Mark Rutte, whose projected 24 seats would leave it in third place, has said it was open to the idea – but this week ruled out supporting Wilders as prime minister.
“I have said I can’t see that happening, because Wilders cannot form a majority,” said Rutte’s successor as VVD leader, the outgoing justice minister, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius. “But it’s his move now. He has to show whether he can form a majority.”
Wilders, who has been under police protection since 2004 and in 2016 was convicted of insulting Moroccans for vowing, at a campaign rally, to ensure there were “fewer” of them, is likely to start sounding other party leaders out on Friday.
Since 2004, he has been under police protection and in 2016 was convicted of discrimination after he vowed to ensure there were “fewer Moroccans” at a campaign rally. A court later cleared Wilders of inciting discrimination, though it upheld his conviction for insulting Moroccans.
Although the party that wins the most seats traditionally provides the next prime minister, it is by no means guaranteed to do so. Rutte will remain in a caretaker role until a new government is installed, which might not be before next spring.
The outcome of the election, set to usher in the Netherlands’ first new prime minister in 13 years after four consecutive Rutte-led coalitions, could lead to “constitutional stalemate”, said Kate Parker of the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Analysts have predicted that coalition negotiations could prove even longer and more complex than after the previous 2021 election, when four coalition partners took a record 271 days to hammer out an agreement.
The shape of the new coalition could have a major impact on the Netherlands’ immigration and climate policies, as well as relations with its European partners. The country was a founding EU member and punches above its weight in the bloc.
Rutte’s fourth and final coalition resigned in July after failing to agree on measures to rein in migration, one of the key issues of the campaign, along with a housing crisis that especially affects Dutch youth, the cost of living, and voter trust in politicians.
Wilders is an outspoken Eurosceptic and has long campaigned for the Dutch government to take back control of the country’s borders to reduce immigration, slash payments into the union’s budget and veto any further expansion of the EU. He has also demanded the Netherlands stop sending arms to Ukraine.
Wilders has recently attempted to soften his more hardline anti-Islam language, apparently in hopes of entering a coalition government for the first time, conceding that there were “bigger problems” than bringing down refugee numbers, and that he could put some of his anti-Muslim positions “on ice”.
He would be “prime minister for everyone” in the Netherlands, he promised during the campaign, “regardless of their religion, background, sex or whatever”, adding that the cost of living crisis was a bigger priority.
Tom van der Meer, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, described the result as “the biggest shift we have ever seen in the Netherlands”. Wilders had surfed a wave of anti-immigration sentiment and frustration with cross-party coalitions, he told the public broadcaster NOS.
Voting took place in polling stations including the Anne Frank and Van Gogh museums in Amsterdam, with voters facing a choice of 26 parties – 18 of which could enter parliament – in one of Europe’s most fragmented political landscapes.
At the De Duif church in Amsterdam, Lisa, a 28-year-old architect, said she had decided to vote “tactically” for the GreenLeft-Labour alliance to prevent Wilders’ far-right PVV from becoming the biggest party.
“I realised I had to vote for GreenLeft-Labour because I don’t want PVV to win,” she said. “The environment and cost of living crisis are the most important topics for me. I don’t foresee a leftwing government, but this is the least I can do.”
Lisette, 47, a consultant, said she had decided to vote for the the VVD because of the “long-term stability the party brings”. “Internationally, I have been very happy with the way Rutte has presented our country,” she added.
Stijn, 26, a student, voted for the pro-farmer BBB movement. “I know how hard it is for them,” he said. “My parents are farmers and I know first-hand how much they struggle. Other parties go too far with their climate change proposals.”
Voting at the Anne Frank museum, Mirjam Stoker, 52, said she had opted for Green-Labour because she was “a bit scared of the PVV”. “The government needs to stay a bit in the middle,” she said.
• This post was amended on 24 November 2023 to clarify that Geert Wilders was convicted in 2016 of insulting Moroccans and inciting discrimination, but the latter conviction was overturned.
