We are inching closer to the start of the 2023 NFL season, so it’s time for the mad dash of fantasy football drafts to begin. That makes it more important than ever to put your players into positional “tiers.” Unlike my player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player, you can see others on the same tier as an alternative. And if that tier has been cleared, it might be a good idea to change direction and wait a round or two on players who fall into the next tier at that position.
I’ll cover all four of the offensive positional tiers for our fantasy football purposes, but we’ll start things off with the men under center, the quarterbacks.
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-- Tier 1 --
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Josh Allen, Bills
Jalen Hurts, Eagles
Mahomes, Allen and Hurts are likely to be the first three quarterbacks off the board in most 2023 fantasy drafts, at least in some order. Each member of the tier put up an average of more than 24 fantasy points per game a season ago, and their most recent average draft position on the NFFC website (month of August) has them all coming off the board from between the 12th-19th overall picks.
-- Tier 2 --
Joe Burrow, Bengals
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Justin Herbert, Chargers
Justin Fields, Bears
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Burrow, who averaged 22 points a game last season, is on the borderline of the first and second tiers. Jackson comes with some risk, but he averaged nearly 20 points a game last season. Herbert and Fields are very close in value, though the former is being picked higher in high-stakes leagues. Lawrence, one of my favorite breakout candidates, has a shot to be a top-five fantasy quarterback in 2023.
-- Tier 3 --
Deshaun Watson, Browns
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Kirk Cousins, Vikings
Daniel Jones, Giants
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Geno Smith, Seahawks
This tier is a crowded one and includes past fantasy stars looking to rebound after a bad season or quarterbacks looking to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. All six of these field generals have the potential to be top-five fantasy options, but there’s also some risk with them. Watson led the league in passing the last time he played in a full season, but that was in 2020. Prescott threw too many interceptions last year, and Tagovailoa (concussions) comes with injury risk. Smith and Jones are both coming off big breakout campaigns and are considered mid-to-low QB1 options.
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-- Tier 4 --
Anthony Richardson, Colts
Aaron Rodgers, Jets
Russell Wilson, Broncos
Jared Goff, Lions
Richardson’s mobility and athleticism make him a potential breakout candidate, but he’s more of a high-end No. 2 quarterback. Rodgers is coming off a down year, so a change of scenery could do him well. The same holds true of Wilson, who had a bad 2022 but could return to prominence under new coach Sean Payton. Goff was a star at home and a dud on the road a season ago, but he still finished as a top-10 player based on fantasy points. He fits in the mid-to-high QB2 range.
-- Tier 5 --
Kenny Pickett, Steelers
Brock Purdy, 49ers
Matthew Stafford, Rams
Derek Carr, Saints
Jordan Love, Packers
This tier features three players -- Pickett, Purdy and Love -- who could all break out. Pickett has gained a lot of buzz in Steelers camp and is my favorite of the trio. All of them have top-15 fantasy potential and could be late-round draft bargains. Stafford and Carr are coming off down seasons and have less upside, but both can turn into viable No. 2 fantasy quarterbacks and matchup-based starters.
-- Tier 6 --
Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Bryce Young, Panthers
Sam Howell, Commanders
C.J. Stroud, Texans
Jimmy Garoppolo, Raiders
Mac Jones, Patriots
It’s tough to put Murray in a tier since he has top-10 potential on a points-per-game basis, but we’re unsure when he’ll return from an ACL tear. For those who feel safe waiting on a quarterback, Murray is a definite target to pair with another quarterback who can start in the interim. Young, Howell and Stroud have little to no experience in the NFL, but all three have QB2 potential. Howell, a mobile field general, could have the most upside based on his offensive talent and skill set.
-- Tier 7 --
Desmond Ridder, Falcons
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers
Trey Lance, 49ers
Gardner Minshew, Colts
Kyle Trask, Buccaneers
It’s tough to see anyone in this tier making a consistently good fantasy impact, and most of them won’t even be drafted outside of two-quarterback or superflex leagues. Ridder has the most upside of the group, but he isn’t more than a late pick. Mayfield is the better of the Buccaneers quarterbacks, at least for now.
-- Tier 8 --
This tier is all projected backups with no real draft value at this point.
