The NFL has gone mad, folks.
In yet another blockbuster trade, the Kansas City Chiefs have traded superstar wideout Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for a 2022 first-round pick (No. 29), a second-round pick (No. 50) and a fourth-round pick, as well as fourth- and sixth-round picks in the 2023 NFL draft according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The move has a ripple effect of sorts across several positions as we look ahead to the 2022 fantasy campaign.
Hill leaving the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes is bad for the value of both players. Hill will now be catching passes from Tua Tagovailoa, who hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire as a pro. He's not much of a downfield passer either, as we see in his T-28th rank among quarterbacks in terms of big pass plays (20-plus yards) last season. Tua’s stock will rise with Hill in the mix regardless, but he’s still not what I would call a major breakout candidate. I consider him a mid-to-low No. 2 fantasy quarterback.
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At wide receiver, I now see Hill as more of a high No. 2 fantasy option than a top-five player. The downgrade at quarterback and offense is simply too great for me to keep him in the top 10. He’ll also have to face Bill Belichick’s defense and the Bills defense four times a year. His presence also hurts the potential value of Jaylen Waddle, who was one of my favorite wideout targets before the Dolphins acquired the Cheetah. The Alabama product is now more of a high No. 3 fantasy option with a lower ceiling.
In Kansas City, Hill’s absence drops Mahomes down a few spots at quarterback at this point. Over the last two seasons, around 27 percent of his fantasy production has gone to Hill. Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady should all be considered more valuable, and Joe Burrow could join that list in the near future. You might consider that a little drastic, but Hill’s departure in the offense is drastic.
The value of Travis Kelce won’t change, because he’s already the No. 1 fantasy tight end in the NFL. I do like Smith-Schuster a lot more, but he’s a totally different player than Hill. Still, he will push into the No. 2 fantasy wideout conversation with more targets heading his way. I would also expect the Chiefs to add a wide receiver (or receivers) either via free agency or the draft, so stay tuned to what’s been a wild offseason.
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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for your late breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!
